NFL Playoff Predictions

There is really only one way to make predictions on the outcome of some game or tournament and have yourself taken seriously, and that is to make them before even a single moment has been played. So here we are, just moments away from the kickoff of the first game of the NFL playoffs, and that makes it time for my personal predictions on how this month-long tournament will play out.

Let's start at home with our Philadelphia Eagles. What a tremendous, in some ways over-achieving season it has been for the Birds. When the team left training camp in early September, most fans were planning on a rebuilding year as Kevin Kolb took over at quarterback after a decade behind Donovan McNabb. An 8-8 finish that showed positive signs for 2011 would probably have been considered a success at that point.

But in the opening game against Green Bay, Kolb was injured. In stepped Michael Vick. The rest, as they say, is history. Vick emerged as an uncommon weapon, and an NFL MVP candidate. The team took off behind his acrobatics, bolted to the front of the NFC East, and then capped it all with a rally for the ages in a late December game against the rival New York Giants to take the division crown.

That the team faltered in it's final two regular season games should not be as much cause for concern as it seems to have become for some fans and members of the media. The team was obviously thrown off by the sudden switch of the Vikings game from Sunday night to Tuesday night due to snow a couple of weeks ago. That surprising defeat led to the full-scale benching of regulars for the finale against Dallas, as Andy Reid basically gave them a bye week. The result was a close, last-minute loss by the Eagles subs to the Cowboys regulars.

The more important factors for the Eagles entering the opening week matchup are their opponents, and the condition of their own players. The Eagles have lost key contributors in the past couple of weeks, while the Packers have played extremely well since the return to health of their outstanding quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

I want the Eagles to win. I will be rooting hard for it to happen.
I want to be wrong. Because putting a gun to my head, which is what you basically do when you come out in public with predictions, and I will pick the Packers to advance. Most of Eagles Nation cannot be upset with me, because they feel the same way. In a poll taken at Philly.com, a full 50% of fans believe "The Pack will prevail", while 38% said the Eagles will "win - barely" and another 12% said "The Birds will win big."

Let's call the final score something along the lines of 27-20, Green Bay. The Eagles best chance will be for a beat-up offensive line to find a way to give Vick enough time to make a handful of big plays and have the Eagles win a high-scoring affair. I see the banged-up offensive line and a defense that still needs 1-2 more playmakers falling just a bit short. I hope I am wrong.

So with the Eagles fate out of the way with, time to turn attention to the rest of the tournament. In the rest of the opening weekend, I am looking for wins from Baltimore over Kansas City, New Orleans over Seattle, and Indianapolis over the New York Jets. I think the Raves are just physical enough to edge out KC on the road. The defending Super Bowl champion Saints are back, are hot, and are much better than the host Seahawks. And I am going to always find it hard to bet against Peyton Manning at home.

This means that my 2nd round matchups will have New England beating Baltimore, Pittsburgh beating Indianapolis, Atlanta beating Green Bay, and New Orleans beating Chicago. The Pats are just too good right now for anyone. The Steelers get Manning in wintry western Pennsylvania. The Falcons have too much offense, especially inside their dome. And the defending champs are just better than Da Bears, even outside on the road in winter.

In the respective conference title tilts, I will go with the Pats over the Steelers and the Saints over the Falcons. Again, until someone shows me that I am wrong, New England looks like the best team in football right now. And heading back indoors for the NFC Championship, I will pick Drew Brees over Matt Ryan in what should be an epic title game.

That brings us to the Big Game, the NFL Championship at Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, Texas. With the Cowboys thankfully not in attendance, I am looking for Tom Brady to lead the Patriots to the title for the 4th time in 10 years. This will put the New England Patriots franchise behind only the Steelers (6), Cowboys (5) and 49ers (5) for all-time Super Bowl victories. Brady should be the MVP.

There ya have it. Let the games begin. Again, I would absolutely love for Michael Vick to become a true miracle worker and lead the Eagles to their first-ever Super Bowl title. The team certainly has some of the top offensive weapons, has the 2nd best head coach, and has a rabid fan base. But it will again be the Patriots year come February 6th, 2011 in 'Big D'.

The Philadelphia Eagles Are Winners

Within this same week we saw perfect examples in the tales of two Philadelphia pro sports organizations, one a winner and one a loser. First, the big 'L' gets hung on the forehead of the Philadelphia 76ers organization for signing one of its all-time loser players in Allen Iverson. I covered that topic already earlier in the week.

It's time now to highlight Philly's winning winter sports organization, the Philadelphia Eagles. This past week the Birds signed head coach Andy Reid, the winningest coach in franchise history, to a contract extension that will keep 'Big Red' as the football boss through 2013. By the conclusion of the contract, Reid will have been the head coach for 15 seasons, nearly unheard of in today's pro sports world.

After a decade in Philadelphia, Andy Reid is now the 2nd longest tenured head coach in the entire NFL, trailing only Tennessee head man Jeff Fisher. He has already passed Greasy Neale (1941-50) as the longest tenured coach in Eagles history. He has led the club to a regular season record of 105-66-1 and another 10 wins in the playoffs, which his teams have participated in 7 times. He has 5 NFC East titles and 1 NFC Championship and Super Bowl appearance to his credit.

Andy Reid's teams have fashioned a regular season .614 winning percentage which is the 16th highest in NFL history. The names ahead of him are all legends of the game with names like Lombardi, Madden, Halas, Lambeau, Shula, and Walsh. But the list of the 15 coaches ahead of him also highlights what his detractors see as his one weakness: he has never won a Super Bowl.

On that list of coaches ahead of Reid, 10 of them have won multiple NFL Championships. Only George Allen, the longtime head coach of the Washington Redskins who owns the 3rd-highest winning percentage of all-time, joins Reid in the frustration of never having won a title.

But that inability to win the ultimate prize is not a fatal flaw, it is simply a remaining goal. Only 3 of the men ahead of him on that all-time winning coaches list had fewer games than Reid has coached. He is in the prime of his head coaching career, his team is relatively young and talented, and he should have a number of shots at getting that ring in the coming years.

I grew up in an era of Eagles football during the 1970's in which you expected to lose, one in which the division rival Cowboys and Redskins were always expected to finish ahead of the Birds. That didn't change until a young Dick Vermiel came along and led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl appearance in January 1981. Vermiel burned out quickly and the Birds took a decade to recover until the boisterous Buddy Ryan-led teams. But Ryan could never win in the playoffs.

Andy Reid is quite simply the best coach in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles, and it isn't really even close. He has created a sustained winning atmosphere and record for more than a decade that has now led to head coaching jobs for three of his former assistants: Brad Childress (Minnesota), John Harbaugh (Baltimore), and Steve Spagnuolo (Saint Louis) all served under Reid. This has always been considered a hallmark of great head coaches, the ability of their assistants to move on to head jobs.

Owner Jeff Lurie took over the Philadelphia Eagles in 1994, and promised the rabid football fans of the city that the franchise goal was not only to win a title, but to win multiple Super Bowls. While that has not yet materialized, the organization of Lurie, Reid, and team president Joe Banner has kept the team as a legitimate contender throughout their time at the helm.

The Philadelphia Eagles are winners in any way that you want to measure that fact. While they have not yet won the ultimate prize in their profession, they have always contended for that title and remain a strong contender for the crown. With the signing of Reid and the continuity that provides the organization, the Birds should remain a winner well into the future.