MLB 2011: National League



Call them what you like, because they've had 'em all hung on them at one time or another over this past winter. The "Phab Four", the "Four Aces", the "Four Horsemen", whatever. Just as long as Charlie Manuel can call on them every fifth day, the Philadelphia Phillies will win their 5th straight N.L. East crown and their 3rd National League pennant in four years before falling in one of the best World Series in decades to the Boston Red Sox. At least that's the call here.

I'll cover the Fightin' Phils and all the specific reasons in my next article here in the coming days. Let's spend some time talking about who will be doing the chasing, and who can take their place should those injury woes become overwhelming. Last year I said that the Atlanta Braves might be the one team that could give the Phils a run for their money in the N.L. East, and I was right on there. In Bobby Cox' final season at the helm, Atlanta stayed with the Phils for most of the season, even leading the division for awhile, and made it into the playoffs as the N.L. Wildcard before bowing to the eventual pennant-winning Giants in a tough playoff series.

The Braves may have an intimidating lineup if everything goes right. If Chipper Jones stays healthy. If rookie 1st sacker Freddie Freeman is a Rookie of the Year contender. If their young rotation and bullpen arms all hold up and produce. With newcomer Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann joining last year's phenom Jason Heyward, the Braves should again contend for the division and playoff races.
I just don't believe that Jones can hold up, and that every single thing will go right in Atlanta. Behind the Braves, the dropoff to the Marlins is significant, and even more so to the sinking Mets and the growing Nats.

Last year in the N.L. Central, I said that Cincinnati was a "dark horse" contender. The Reds got more pitching than I thought they would, and put together a division-winning season before running into Roy Halladay and a veteran Phillies team in the playoffs. I also picked Milwaukee to win the division a year ago. I'm going to do it yet again. The Brewers will edge out Cincy in a final weekend battle for the division crown in what will be the best rest in all of baseball, with both the Cubs and the Cardinals staying in it into the final month. Milwaukee strengthened it's pitching rotation this off-season enough to make their lineup led by free agent-to-be Prince Fielder and all-star outfielder Ryan Braun the favorites. Houston and Pittsburgh will be after-thoughts here.

Out in the N.L. West is where the World Series champion San Francisco Giants reside. Led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and closer Brian Wilson, the GMen overcame a mediocre offense to win it all. Last year, that is exactly the recipe that I said they would need if they wanted to do it, and it happened. It won't happen again. Last year I picked the Colorado Rockies to win this division, and as with the Brew Crew in the Central, I am going to do it yet again. The Rox have a legit MVP contender in Carlos Gonzalez and a ton of talent behind him. In fact, I even think that the Dodgers may have enough to beat out San Fran this time around. Those three should battle hard all season, into the final month, with both Arizona and San Diego lagging way in back of that contending pack.

So let's call it the Phillies, Brewers, and Rockies to win the divisional races. I see five clubs as serious N.L. Wildcard contenders here: the Braves, Reds, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants. I'll say that enough things do go right that Atlanta edges out Cincy for the Wildcard playoff spot. I'll take the Phils and Rockies to reach the NLCS, where Philly's "Four Whatevers" dominate the Rockie hitters and lead the Fightin's into another World Series appearance.

For the National League award winners, I'll go with my pick from a year ago to actually win the MVP race this time, and that would be Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. In the Cy Young race, I'm going to take Cole Hamels pitching out of that #4 spot for Philly. As the Rookie of the Year, let's go with Cincy's flame-throwing reliever (for now) Aroldis Chapman. And as the Manager of the Year, I'll take the Cubs Mike Quade for a surprise contending job. Just what specifically it is that I like about those Phillies, what I think can cause them trouble, and why I think they fall short to Boston in the Fall Classic are all topics for the next post.

Phillies Are Now Slump Proof

Throughout the stretch run of the 2010 season and again in at least both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, given reasonable health, the Philadelphia Phillies will remain a contending baseball team. They will remain so because their trade deadline acquisition of right-handed starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has now made them virtually slump-proof.

Every team will go through slumps during the course of a 6-month long, 162-game season. The slumps will come because the team doesn't hit collectively on a consistent basis. They come because injuries hit, sometimes as with this year's Phillies to multiple key players at the same time. They come because there is simply not enough pitching, and that bad pitching gets beat up by good professional hitters.

The one thing that can make a team 'slump-proof', or much more unlikely and infrequently than other teams to a slump or multiple slumps during a long season, is the presence of consistently strong starting pitching. The Phillies now run three true ace starting pitchers at other teams: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt. The odds that all three will lose their respective turn through the rotation are long. The odds that will happen twice in a row are even longer.

Most teams want to have what is known as an 'ace', or a 'stopper'. A true 'ace' is a top-of-the-line starting pitcher, one of the perhaps twenty best starters in the entire game.
The nickname of 'stopper' comes from the fact that when a team does enter into a slump and loses 2-3-4 games in a row, the 'stopper' will usually take the hill, pitch a gem, shut the opposition down, and stop the losing skid before it gets too long.

Keeping slumps from getting lengthy increases the odds over time that your club will stay in contention. What the Phillies now have with their 'Big Three' are three aces, three stoppers. This not only decreases the odds of a slump, it also increases the odds of the Phillies win more often than not. If the 'Big Three' win most of their starts that means the Fightins are winning at least 3 of every 5 games most of the time.

Winning 3 out of 5 means that you go 3-2, and do that over 150 games and your record is 90-60 with a dozen left to play. That is going to be enough to get you into the playoffs the vast majority of seasons, especially when you consider that your 4th and 5th starters, in the Phillies case that would be Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick, are going to win a few themselves.

Last night, Halladay took the hill in New York against the Mets. The Phillies by any measure have slumped in the Big Apple this season. They had not yet scored there this season, and had wasted a gem by Hamels the night before in a 1-0 loss. They needed Halladay to be what he was, an ace. Halladay shutout the Mets over 8 strong innings and was followed by a Ryan Madson tight-rope walk in the 9th for a 4-0 win. Combined with a loss by Atlanta, the Phils have now moved back within 2 games of the Braves in the NL east standings.

So far in the 2010 season, Halladay has fashioned a 15-8 record with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts in 193 innings pitched. Oswalt and Hamels records are not as good, but Oswalt with mostly Houston and Hamels here in Philly have been two of the least-supported pitchers in the game. Oswalt has a 3.34 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 134 strikeouts in 148 innings. Hamels has a 3.33 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, and 157 batters over 154 innings.

Of Halladay's 25 starts, 19 have been what are known as 'Quality' starts, meaning he has pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer earned runs. It is the ultimate sign of at least keeping your team competitively in the game. Hamels figure is 14 of 24 starts, Oswalt is at 17 of 23 starts. Between the three of them total, that means 50 of their 72 starts have been quality enough to give their team a better than average chance of winning. In many cases, those starts have actually been better than the minimum 6 innings and 3 earned runs allowed, they have been truly dominant.

This is what Atlanta will be up against as they try to hold off the Phils for the rest of August and through September into early October. The Phils will keep the pressure on as they run out quality starters for most every game the rest of the way. Atlanta has a good staff too with Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. But Jurrjens and Hanson don't have the pennant race pedigree of the Phils' three aces.

And while the Phillies are about to get the two biggest veteran bats back into their lineup in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the Braves have lost their lineup's biggest veteran leader in Chipper Jones for the rest of the season. Barring injuries to any of the 'Big Three' and with reasonable results from Blanton and Kendrick, the Phillies are now slump-proof. With control of their contracts for at least the next couple seasons, the Phillies should remain contenders for the foreseeable future as well.

MLB 2009: National League

Unlike the American League, which I covered in yesterday's entry and which is dominated by three teams, the National League pennant race in MLB is wide open. This is both good news and bad for our own Phillies. The bad news is that there are a lot of pretty good teams in the NL that the Phils will have to battle if they want to repeat as National League champions. The good news is that the Phils are one of them, and there is no team that is clearly superior to our defending World Series champs. Tomorrow will be devoted specifically to covering those Phils, but in starting out with the NL East race, let's just say that the Phils match up well with every team, and are better than most. They and the Mets are fairly even, though I still like the Phillies top-to-bottom lineup, their bench, and the depth in their bullpen better than New York. Those Mets will be a strong contender with a lineup that features one of the best young players and leaders in the game in 3rd baseman David Wright and one of the game's most exciting players in speedy shortstop Jose Reyes. Veteran bats like the two Carlos', Delgado and Beltran, provide run-producing pop as well. The rotation is headed by all-world lefty Johan Santana, but has a bunch of question marks after him. The Mets arguably would have won the division the past two years, and possibly a World Series of their own, if they just were able to finish out close games with their bullpen. They finally met that need this off-season by signing record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, and yet another closer to back him up in J.J. Putz. If they stay healthy, the Mets will not blow many 9th inning leads this time around. But this time the race will not stop at just the Phils and Mets. It seems like every 5-6 years or so the Florida Marlins accumulate enough strong young talent to become serious contenders, and this is possibly one of those years. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez rivals the Phils' own middle of Utley-Rollins as the best in baseball. They have a future all-star in Cameron Maybin about to burst on the scene in their outfield. And their young pitching has depth and talent that is the envy of every team outside of Tampa. The Fish are a couple bats short, and their bullpen is not good enough to overtake the Phils and Mets. But they will make it interesting much of the year, as will the Atlanta Braves. Perhaps no team but the Yankees improved their starting pitching rotation more than the Bravos this off-season. Atlanta added four solid veterans in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. They team with youngster Jair Jurrjens to give the Braves the best rotation in the east, assuming these guys stay healthy. The Braves lineup has good young parts led by catcher Brian McCann, but the key to contending will be the health of veteran leader Chipper Jones (pictured). If the Braves get a full season out of him, and if both outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson produce, the Braves could seriously challenge the top two teams. I am going to call it in this order: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals. In the NL Central, most prognosticators are picking the Chicago Cubs, as well as installing the Cubbies as favorites for the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. There are plenty of reasons to like them starting with a talented and varied offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovanny Soto. In the off-season the Cubs signed mercurial outfielder Milton Bradley. I am going to install him as a dark-horse MVP candidate, because if he can stay healthy he has the talent to be a difference-maker for this team. The Cubs have depth and talent in both their rotation and bullpen, but that rotation could easily be set back by injuries. If Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hold up, the Cubs should win the NL Central. But hot on their heels could well be either or both of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun matches up with anyone, or the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the mighty Albert Pujols back and at full strength, and that is truly scary since he won the NL MVP a year ago during a season in which he was injured. They also get back from injury a pair of arms in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and these guys staying healthy all year will be the key to the Cards staying with the Cubbies. Out in the NL West we can just refer to this as 'Manny Land', because the Dodgers' superstar and future Hall of Famer will be the key to this race. If his head is on straight and he is at full health, Manny will be Manny, and he will lead Joe Torre's troops to another division title. With a vastly improved middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal, and with returning young bats in Russ Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, this lineup could contend even without Ramirez. Beyond young ace Chad Billingsley, who still has to prove he can carry that mantle, and strong closer Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers pitching staff is uncharacteristically full of question marks. Right on their heels will be the Arizona Diamondbacks led by the pitching troika of Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson. With strong young bats like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson, and a deep pitching staff, this team could very well unseat the Dodgers. The pick here is for those Dodgers bats to hold off the DBacks pitching edge, but it could be very close. Behind the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers the other contenders in New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Arizona should lead the Wildcard charge, and I like the DBacks to take that race. The playoff battles are going to come down to the same keys as they do every year: who is healthy and who is pitching well come October. This is just too close to call right now, but since I went this far already I'll call it a rematch of Phillies-Dodgers for the pennant, and why not pick our Phils to win it again and advance to a World Series rematch with the Rays? They have just as good a shot as anyone else, better than most. Tomorrow's article will be devoted entirely to our World Series champions.