NFL Playoff Predictions

There is really only one way to make predictions on the outcome of some game or tournament and have yourself taken seriously, and that is to make them before even a single moment has been played. So here we are, just moments away from the kickoff of the first game of the NFL playoffs, and that makes it time for my personal predictions on how this month-long tournament will play out.

Let's start at home with our Philadelphia Eagles. What a tremendous, in some ways over-achieving season it has been for the Birds. When the team left training camp in early September, most fans were planning on a rebuilding year as Kevin Kolb took over at quarterback after a decade behind Donovan McNabb. An 8-8 finish that showed positive signs for 2011 would probably have been considered a success at that point.

But in the opening game against Green Bay, Kolb was injured. In stepped Michael Vick. The rest, as they say, is history. Vick emerged as an uncommon weapon, and an NFL MVP candidate. The team took off behind his acrobatics, bolted to the front of the NFC East, and then capped it all with a rally for the ages in a late December game against the rival New York Giants to take the division crown.

That the team faltered in it's final two regular season games should not be as much cause for concern as it seems to have become for some fans and members of the media. The team was obviously thrown off by the sudden switch of the Vikings game from Sunday night to Tuesday night due to snow a couple of weeks ago. That surprising defeat led to the full-scale benching of regulars for the finale against Dallas, as Andy Reid basically gave them a bye week. The result was a close, last-minute loss by the Eagles subs to the Cowboys regulars.

The more important factors for the Eagles entering the opening week matchup are their opponents, and the condition of their own players. The Eagles have lost key contributors in the past couple of weeks, while the Packers have played extremely well since the return to health of their outstanding quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

I want the Eagles to win. I will be rooting hard for it to happen.
I want to be wrong. Because putting a gun to my head, which is what you basically do when you come out in public with predictions, and I will pick the Packers to advance. Most of Eagles Nation cannot be upset with me, because they feel the same way. In a poll taken at Philly.com, a full 50% of fans believe "The Pack will prevail", while 38% said the Eagles will "win - barely" and another 12% said "The Birds will win big."

Let's call the final score something along the lines of 27-20, Green Bay. The Eagles best chance will be for a beat-up offensive line to find a way to give Vick enough time to make a handful of big plays and have the Eagles win a high-scoring affair. I see the banged-up offensive line and a defense that still needs 1-2 more playmakers falling just a bit short. I hope I am wrong.

So with the Eagles fate out of the way with, time to turn attention to the rest of the tournament. In the rest of the opening weekend, I am looking for wins from Baltimore over Kansas City, New Orleans over Seattle, and Indianapolis over the New York Jets. I think the Raves are just physical enough to edge out KC on the road. The defending Super Bowl champion Saints are back, are hot, and are much better than the host Seahawks. And I am going to always find it hard to bet against Peyton Manning at home.

This means that my 2nd round matchups will have New England beating Baltimore, Pittsburgh beating Indianapolis, Atlanta beating Green Bay, and New Orleans beating Chicago. The Pats are just too good right now for anyone. The Steelers get Manning in wintry western Pennsylvania. The Falcons have too much offense, especially inside their dome. And the defending champs are just better than Da Bears, even outside on the road in winter.

In the respective conference title tilts, I will go with the Pats over the Steelers and the Saints over the Falcons. Again, until someone shows me that I am wrong, New England looks like the best team in football right now. And heading back indoors for the NFC Championship, I will pick Drew Brees over Matt Ryan in what should be an epic title game.

That brings us to the Big Game, the NFL Championship at Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, Texas. With the Cowboys thankfully not in attendance, I am looking for Tom Brady to lead the Patriots to the title for the 4th time in 10 years. This will put the New England Patriots franchise behind only the Steelers (6), Cowboys (5) and 49ers (5) for all-time Super Bowl victories. Brady should be the MVP.

There ya have it. Let the games begin. Again, I would absolutely love for Michael Vick to become a true miracle worker and lead the Eagles to their first-ever Super Bowl title. The team certainly has some of the top offensive weapons, has the 2nd best head coach, and has a rabid fan base. But it will again be the Patriots year come February 6th, 2011 in 'Big D'.

Goodbye, Donovan McNabb

There has been a battle brewing in my pro football-crazed town of Philadelphia over the past couple of football seasons. That battle has been over the fate and future of it's quarterback, Donovan McNabb. Is McNabb good enough to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl? Should McNabb be traded away? The answer apparently came on Easter Sunday night when the Eagles traded McNabb to the division rival Washington Redskins for a pair of draft picks.

Some have been waiting for more than a decade for McNabb to stumble and fall. These were the Eagles fans infamously known as the 'Boo Birds', the fans who showed up for the NFL Draft in 1999 hoping and praying that their beloved Eagles would select running back Ricky Williams to lead them out of the wilderness of losing seasons that had befallen the team. With the 2nd overall pick, Williams was there waiting for the Birds. But much to the chagrin of the rabid fan base, Commissioner Paul Tagliabue stepped to the podium and made this announcement:

"With the 2nd pick the Philadelphia Eagles select Donovan McNabb, quarterback, Syracuse University."

Never before has such a torrent of boisterous "boo" calls rained down upon an NFL Commissioner as the Eagles fans delivered on that infamous day. And that is saying a lot, considering the Draft is held in New York, rabid Jets fans show up regularly in numbers, and their team has made some awful picks over the years.

However, thankfully for the majority of Philadelphia Eagles fans, and also for those 'Boo Birds' even if they weren't yet ready or willing to admit it at the time (some never were) the Eagles made the correct selection that Draft day. The fans wanted someone to lead them out of the losing wilderness, and they got it in the outgoing, personable, talented, confident young man who coach Andy Reid had hand-picked to become his quarterback, centerpiece, and leader.

McNabb was coming off a storied collegiate career at Syracuse, where he had started every game and led the team to a 35-14 record between 1995-1998. He set school records for the longest TD pass and the most passing yards in a season. He set or tied numerous other school records, and accounted for 5 touchdowns vs. a vaunted Miami squad. In his senior season, he led the Orangemen to a berth in the Orange Bowl, and was brilliant in the team's narrow 34-33 loss to eventual National Champion Tennessee, a team that has been ranked as the 2nd greatest college football team of all-time.

McNabb was more than just a strong-armed passer, however. He was also a strong and fearless running quarterback. By the time that 1999 NFL Draft came around, McNabb had been recognized as the Big East conference's Player of the Decade for the 1990's, a first team all-conference selection each of his four years, and it's Offensive Player of the Year in each of his final three seasons. That the fans would boo a guy with this resume after years of watching the likes of Jeff Kemp, Brad Goebel, Bubby Brister, Rodney Peete, Bobby Hoying, Doug Pederson, and both Ty & Koy Detmer guiding their team shows just how ridiculous they can be at times.

Donovan McNabb got his very first start in his rookie season against, ironically, the Washington Redskins. He guided the Birds to a 35-28 victory that day and remained the starter from that moment until being traded away this past Sunday. In his first full season the following year, McNabb became a bona fide NFL star when he finished 2nd in the MVP voting and led the Eagles back to the playoffs for the first time in five years, including a playoff win over the favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2001, McNabb took the Eagles to another level, leading them to an NFC East title and taking them all the way to the NFC Championship game where they lost a heart-breaking tight contest to a heavily favored St. Louis Rams team led by the NFL MVP, running back Marshall Faulk. The 2002 season began brightly for the Birds, but became questionable when McNabb suffered a broken ankle in the 11th week. He worked and fought hard to return, getting back in time to lead the club to a playoff win over Atlanta. However, the team lost, this time as home favorites, in the NFC Championship to Tampa Bay in the final game ever at Veteran's Stadium. Despite McNabb's heroism and sportsmanship in getting back that year at all, some of the fan base began to turn on him that very day.

The 2003 season would just add more fuel to the fire, and more fans to the bandwagon, for getting rid of McNabb. He once again led the team to the NFC Championship game at home, once again as the favorites, and for the 3rd consecutive season to a loss in that NFC finale, this time to a devastating Carolina Panthers defense that beat the Eagles on the scoreboard and that physically beat up McNabb, knocking him out of the first title game at the new Lincoln Financial Field. It was after this loss that McNabb and the word "choke" officially began to become synonymous to a growing number of fans and media personalities.

The Eagles realized as an organization that something drastic needed to be done to get them over the hump of NFC title game losses, and drastic is just what they did, signing outspoken and controversial but mega-talented wide receiver Terrell Owens to serve as a key weapon for McNabb. For that one season, it was a match made in football heaven. McNabb had the best season of his outstanding career, and with Owens helping to lead the way the Birds again advanced into the playoffs. It seemed like a story-book ending waiting to happen until Owens suffered a broken ankle and looked likely to miss the playoffs. With Owens out, McNabb led the Eagles to a playoff win over the Vikings and then, finally, to an NFC Championship win over the Atlanta Falcons and young hotshot quarterback Michael Vick.

The Eagles were finally over that hump. They had actually won the NFC Championship, and had done it on their home turf at the Lince in front of their joyous fans. It was now on to the Super Bowl at last. Facing them would be the tough defending NFL Champion New England Patriots, and Owens was working furiously in an attempt to return from the injury that many believed had ended his season. Owens did indeed make it back, and the Eagles gave the Patriots fits in the NFL's big game before falling just short in a 24-21 defeat.

To say that McNabb was at fault for that loss is ridiculous, but many Eagles fans did say just that and still believe that to this very day. He completed 30-51 passes for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns, had his team tied with the NFL Champs after 3 quarters, and nearly engineered a great final-minutes rally in the 4th quarter. But he also threw 3 interceptions, and was sacked 3 times by a tremendous Pats' defense that kept him under fierce pressure the entire game. And then there was the 'puke' incident.

In post-game interviews, one Eagle said that McNabb was so hyper at one point in the huddle that he nearly puked. Despite the fact that it was disputed by McNabb and his teammates, and that there was no video evidence in the most camera-covered event of the year, some fans and media ran with it and said that McNabb had thrown up during the most important game of his life because he was too nervous, a sign that he couldn't take the pressure in a big game.

That loss in the Super Bowl was devastating to many fans. They had finally reached the NFL version of the promised land after so many recent attempts had fallen just short. Now to have had the game been so frustratingly close and have had the Eagles walk away with still no Lombardi Trophy was too much for some. McNabb threw three interceptions and threw up from bad nerves on the field. He simply couldn't win the big games. He was a choke artist. McNabb needed to go. This became the aura that surrounded the team, fed in particular by local talk sports radio station 610 WIP AM and their cast of buffoon announcers and borderline 'expert' sports analysts.

For most of the next few years, McNabb suffered a series of legitimate injuries that began to add concerns that he was also 'brittle' as well as being a choker. With each passing year, the voice of the fans and the radio media seemed to cry out louder and louder for McNabb's ouster, and when it didn't come, that anger and frustration began to turn also on head coach Andy Reid. Those fans who hated McNabb and wanted him out of town began to criticize Reid for being too loyal and stubborn to his longtime centerpiece player.

The calls for changes at both quarterback and head coach were temporarily eased when the Eagles once again, and somewhat unexpectedly, reached yet another NFC Championship game following the 2008 season. McNabb set a career high with more than 3,900 passing yards and guided the club to a romp over the hated rival Dallas Cowboys in the season finale to gain the final NFL playoff berth. He then led the team to playoff wins over Minnesota and the Giants before losing another heart-breaking close game in the NFC title tilt in Arizona.

It was during that up and down 2008 season that McNabb was first benched by Reid. During a difficult loss to the Baltimore Ravens, a healthy McNabb was sent to the bench and 2007 draft choice Kevin Kolb was given an opportunity to enter his first NFL game. When McNabb began the 2009 season following that Arizona title game loss with yet another injury, Kolb got a chance to start with more experience under his belt. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 300 yards in his first two starts, getting the Eagles off to a 1-1 start before McNabb returned.

That was the final straw for many. Not only was McNabb an injury-prone, aging, choking puker and loser when it counted most, but his understudy now appeared to be absolutely ready to take over the lead role. In what would prove to be his swan song, McNabb led the Eagles to an 11-4 record and a season finale showdown with Dallas once again. If the Birds won, they would get the NFC East division title, a #2 playoff seeding and a first-round playoff bye, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. Not only did Dallas blowout the Eagles that day, but then again a week later in the playoffs. The twin losses to their most hated rival by a combined score of 58-14 were the final nails in the coffin for the quarterback.

The story of Donovan McNabb's career as the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback stretches back now for a full decade. For the entire first decade of this new millenium, McNabb led the Birds to the playoffs 8 times in 10 seasons, a record not only unmatched but unapproached in franchise history. He set Eagles career records for pass completions, attempts, yardage, and touchdowns. He set franchise single-season records for both completions and yards. He led the team to 5 NFC Championship games and only the 2nd Super Bowl appearance in it's history.

For those who questioned the strong-armed McNabb's accuracy over the years, the facts speak otherwise. He holds the NFL record for consecutive pass completions, and is the NFL's least-intercepted quarterback per pass attempt of all-time. In that 2004 storybook season he became the first NFL quarterback in history to throw for more than 30 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions. And to highlight his excitement and versatility, he is one of only six NFL quarterbacks of all-time to register over 25,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards.

The fact is that Donovan McNabb is simply the greatest quarterback in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles franchise. The era for which he will always be remembered should, in fact, be remembered as the greatest sustained era of winning excellence in the team's long history that is pock-marked by numerous losing years and eras. I have personally always been a fan and supporter of the man. He was never anything less than a positive role model in the community and a smiling, positive leader on the field. He was also, despite what the WIP nut jobs and those 'Boo Birds' will still likely never admit, a winner.

Goodbye and good luck in your future, Donovan McNabb. Thanks for the numerous great memories and big wins. I will personally be hoping that in those two games per year that the Redskins will play against the Eagles, that Donovan enjoys a fine afternoon but comes up short on the scoreboard. Of course, that is just what he was criticized for here over the years. It's ironic that this time the 'Boo Birds' would be cheering that type of result from him and his team.

The Philadelphia Eagles Are Winners

Within this same week we saw perfect examples in the tales of two Philadelphia pro sports organizations, one a winner and one a loser. First, the big 'L' gets hung on the forehead of the Philadelphia 76ers organization for signing one of its all-time loser players in Allen Iverson. I covered that topic already earlier in the week.

It's time now to highlight Philly's winning winter sports organization, the Philadelphia Eagles. This past week the Birds signed head coach Andy Reid, the winningest coach in franchise history, to a contract extension that will keep 'Big Red' as the football boss through 2013. By the conclusion of the contract, Reid will have been the head coach for 15 seasons, nearly unheard of in today's pro sports world.

After a decade in Philadelphia, Andy Reid is now the 2nd longest tenured head coach in the entire NFL, trailing only Tennessee head man Jeff Fisher. He has already passed Greasy Neale (1941-50) as the longest tenured coach in Eagles history. He has led the club to a regular season record of 105-66-1 and another 10 wins in the playoffs, which his teams have participated in 7 times. He has 5 NFC East titles and 1 NFC Championship and Super Bowl appearance to his credit.

Andy Reid's teams have fashioned a regular season .614 winning percentage which is the 16th highest in NFL history. The names ahead of him are all legends of the game with names like Lombardi, Madden, Halas, Lambeau, Shula, and Walsh. But the list of the 15 coaches ahead of him also highlights what his detractors see as his one weakness: he has never won a Super Bowl.

On that list of coaches ahead of Reid, 10 of them have won multiple NFL Championships. Only George Allen, the longtime head coach of the Washington Redskins who owns the 3rd-highest winning percentage of all-time, joins Reid in the frustration of never having won a title.

But that inability to win the ultimate prize is not a fatal flaw, it is simply a remaining goal. Only 3 of the men ahead of him on that all-time winning coaches list had fewer games than Reid has coached. He is in the prime of his head coaching career, his team is relatively young and talented, and he should have a number of shots at getting that ring in the coming years.

I grew up in an era of Eagles football during the 1970's in which you expected to lose, one in which the division rival Cowboys and Redskins were always expected to finish ahead of the Birds. That didn't change until a young Dick Vermiel came along and led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl appearance in January 1981. Vermiel burned out quickly and the Birds took a decade to recover until the boisterous Buddy Ryan-led teams. But Ryan could never win in the playoffs.

Andy Reid is quite simply the best coach in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles, and it isn't really even close. He has created a sustained winning atmosphere and record for more than a decade that has now led to head coaching jobs for three of his former assistants: Brad Childress (Minnesota), John Harbaugh (Baltimore), and Steve Spagnuolo (Saint Louis) all served under Reid. This has always been considered a hallmark of great head coaches, the ability of their assistants to move on to head jobs.

Owner Jeff Lurie took over the Philadelphia Eagles in 1994, and promised the rabid football fans of the city that the franchise goal was not only to win a title, but to win multiple Super Bowls. While that has not yet materialized, the organization of Lurie, Reid, and team president Joe Banner has kept the team as a legitimate contender throughout their time at the helm.

The Philadelphia Eagles are winners in any way that you want to measure that fact. While they have not yet won the ultimate prize in their profession, they have always contended for that title and remain a strong contender for the crown. With the signing of Reid and the continuity that provides the organization, the Birds should remain a winner well into the future.

Faith in Eagles Management

There has been much lamenting and gnashing of teeth in Eagles Nation over the past week or so as players like Lito Sheppard, Sean Considine, Correll Buckhalter, and most especially Brian Dawkins have either been traded away or left the team via free agency. You also have the two twin towers of the offensive line for the past decade, Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan, very much in doubt as to their own returning for next season. Tight End L.J. Smith is shopping his services and is believed not wanted back by the Birds. These players make up a huge portion of the success that the Philadelphia Eagles football team has enjoyed over the past decade. But as they leave it is important to note something that is extremely important: this current Philadelphia Eagles management team of owner Jeffrey Lurie, team President Joe Banner, and GM/Coach Andy Reid almost always knows when to say 'when' with a player, no matter that player's reputation or popularity. From Duce Staley to Jeremiah Trotter to Hugh Douglas, the Eagles knew when it was time to say goodbye. Probably the only exception was Terrell Owens, and is there anyone out there as an Eagles fan who really wanted him to stay after all the histrionics and drama that he created? He moved on to the Eagles greatest rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, and put up some great stats. He has also continued his controversial ways there, and has helped the Cowboys achieve exactly nothing of note as a team in his two seasons in 'Big D' so far. Since the end of Andy Reid's first season as head coach in 1999, and since Donovan McNabb took over as the starting quarterback, the Eagles have fashioned a regular season record of 92-51-1. They have had just one losing season in that stretch, the injury and T.O. drama-marred 2005 season following their Super Bowl near-miss vs. New England. They have won five NFC East titles, and are coming off a 2008 season that saw them advance to the NFC Championship game for the fifth time. Eagles fans are easily among the handful of most passionate and knowledgeable fan bases in the entire NFL community. They are also notoriously emotional. They form bonds with their heroes that are commendable, but that would be disastrous if such emotion was demonstrated similarly and then operated on by the organization. The Eagles brain trust has to make difficult decisions to remain competitive year-in and year-out. Ask an Eagles fan if he would trade one single Super Bowl victory for ten losing seasons and most fans would take the Super Bowl. Ask the team management if they would prefer to win one Super Bowl and then lose for a decade, or continue to be a competitive club that wins division titles and is in the playoffs most years over the next decade, and I would bet the management would take the latter. That is because management is smart, whereas fans generally are not. 'Smart' in this respect meaning that there comes a time when every player has to move on, and management has to make those tough decisions no matter what the fans feel. It has happened with the popular players already mentioned, and it will happen sometime in the next couple of seasons with players like McNabb, David Akers, and Brian Westbrook. Father Time catches up with everyone, including pro athletes, and especially pro football players who take a pounding in one of the most violent sports ever devised by man. The management team in charge of the Philadelphia Eagles pro football team has proven itself over a decade that it knows what it is doing in keeping the team a strong competitor every year in perhaps football's toughest division. A great deal of leadership has aged and is now moving on as the team says goodbye to Dawkins and Thomas and perhaps to Runyan. But my money right now is on that management team to further develop the players still on the roster, and to bring in more complimentary players via the draft and free agency, and remain strong competitors for that fan base. Due simply to their track record, if for no other reason, I for one have faith in Eagles management to keep the team a winner.

Trying to Find a Silver Lining

I have always been a pretty positive person. It's hard to get me down for long, and I've learned in the course of a life that is now well into it's 5th decade that most of the things that we worry over are somewhat insignificant. For instance, my hometown Philadelphia Eagles lost a heart-breaking NFC Championship game yesterday to the Arizona Cardinals. The defeat means that the team falls just short of reaching football's ultimate goal - the Super Bowl. It was very disappointing and somewhat frustrating as the final seconds ticked away and we came to realize that our team was not going to make it. What is even more ludicrous to me is what will happen over the next week or so, as all of the 'Monday Morning Quarterbacks' come out of the woodwork to criticize every poor play and missed opportunity. I will most definitely be avoiding all sports talk radio stations for the next couple of weeks. As for me, I try to find the silver lining. With the Eagles it will be in the way they played for the last six weeks of their season, when they had to win nearly every week to keep their season alive. They won most of those games, and it was a fun time to be a fan. To me, Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid showed that they are still among the best quarterbacks and head coaches in the league, and some strong young players leave me believing that next season will be a strong one for the team. So football is over for 2009 here in Philadelphia. Only the Arizona-Pittsburgh meeting in the Super Bowl remains for the NFL. Tomorrow will be an even bigger challenge for me in trying to find a silver lining. Today marks the final day of the Presidential administration of George W. Bush. One of the most liberal politicians to ever become the President of the United States, Democrat Barack Obama, will take the oath of office on Tuesday. He will have a mostly supportive Congress and Senate behind him, as the Democratic Party is back in charge of both Houses. And the big television networks and former mainstream media newspapers are all on board with this liberal Democratic government monopoly. The fact is that for conservative Republicans such as myself, the next few years are likely going to see one disaster after another play out against the country that we love. We are likely to see taxes raised for all Americans as the Dems both repeal the outstanding Bush tax cuts and raise them further with their own legislation. We are likely to become far less safe as the Dems slowly dismantle the security programs put in place by the Bush administration after 9/11. The budget deficits of today will balloon with pork-barrel spending that goes far beyond any savings found by repealing the tax cuts and bringing home some troops. And at least in the first year there will be partisan calls for investigations into members of the Bush administration for nothing more than political vindictiveness. It is going to be a very, very ugly time in America. But that is what Democrats do best. They complain, they whine, they distract, they get divisive and vindictive, and they bury America under taxation and regulation while playing Russian roulette with our national security. This is what is likely to happen over the next four years. We can only hope that the liberal Dems don't do too much damage before the Republicans can get our acts back together and reclaim power. In the mean time the positive attitude person inside me will be searching for a silver lining for America. For one, black Americans should have to finally set aside any thoughts that they have any barriers. The United States of America has proven that race and sex are no barrier in advancing to the highest offices in the land. That is a good thing. But which minority is the one that takes office and commands power, that has always been the real issue. A black or female President, or any other minority, is not the problem. A liberal Democrat President of any stripe is the problem. Here's to hoping that the Democrats finally find a way to get more things right than wrong for once. I pray for the success of Barack Obama in keeping America safe, in leading a fix of the financial problems our country faces, in maintaining traditional American values, and in building political bridges rather than allowing the country to remain distracted by the partisan politics of people like Nancy Pelosi. I will sincerely pray for those things. But knowing the nature of the Party to which he belongs, and that of the vast majority of its members in political power seats, I don't have much hope. But I will keep praying for America, and will keep looking for the silver lining.

Monday Morning Quarterback

There is so much going on right now that one entry here needs to be devoted to a number of topics. So I'm driving home after dropping my daughter off at her boyfriend's home this past Friday evening and one of her neighbors has their house decorated for Christmas. I mean, that would make it November 21st, just one day after my birthday. A week before Thanksgiving. It's just too soon. When I was a kid, nothing 'Christmas' happened until after Thanksgiving. The day after, in fact. That became known as 'Black Friday', almost a national holiday itself, when all the Christmas shopping would begin. Now poor little Thanksgiving, a great holiday unto itself, is being shoved aside more and more. Moving on to the Eagles...do I really have to? After my hopeful entry just 48 hours ago, the 'Playoff Express' ran completely off the rails in yesterday's 2nd half in Baltimore. A promising beginning rapidly deteriorated for Donovan McNabb, and he was yanked at halftime of a 10-7 game that was a must-win for this franchise to have any hopes of a 2008 playoff appearance. Frankly, he was awful, but he has been awful early in games before and rallied himself and the team. This was a close game against a top defense on the road. And this is where Andy Reid chose to make the switch to Kevin Kolb? Kolb was at least as bad as McNabb, the game spiraled out of control, the Birds lost 36-7 while all their playoff competitors won, and the 2008 season officially ended. It's time to let the Kolb Era fully begin, with more roster changes to come quickly. The Eagles could not have picked a worse time for this to happen. Now they come home for their first Thanksgiving game in years, a game that was looked on with excitement until these past two Sundays. Now it likely will prove to be a source of indigestion after a fine family turkey dinner. Maybe the news holds better stories for us? Nah. It's more 'Saint Barack' 24/7. Something good happens, the front pages read: "Obama Announces Financial Plan; Dow soars 400 points", or "Obama Reaches Out to GOP". Something bad happens, it's: "Sarah Palin Causes Global Warming", or "Cheney Suspected in California Forest Fires". These guys are a laugh riot a minute. The only thing that won't be funny is if Al Franken somehow comes out on top in his Minnesota recount. Now that, like Franken's comedic stylings, would not be one bit funny. Here in Philly, we bury a cop today. Another cop killed this year in the line of duty. This makes four: Steve Liczbinski and Pat McDonald gunned down, Izzy Nazario and now Tim Simpson run down. It's too much for one department to bear, Lord. We need a break. Like a few years break. Today cops from all across the city and region will gather. Another ceremony honoring a hero. Another Mass at the Cathedral downtown. Another motorcade to Resurrection Cemetery in Bensalem. Another burial of a hero in front of a grieving widow and children. More fundraisers and benefits to support and attend. We do it all because we understand, and because we are family. But we would just as soon not have to do it at all. Please Lord, one gift for 2009: no Philly Cop funerals. A lot of bad news in this 'Monday Morning Quarterback' posting, I know. So I'll end it on a bit of an up-tick: Jack is back. For those of us who are fans of "24" you know just what I mean. Jack Bauer returned to the air last night with a bang, rescuing a bunch of kids in Africa, but ultimately being taken into custody himself and transported back to America to testify before Congress as the first female President of the United States was being sworn into office. Hillary had to be watching with a lump in her throat. But Jack was back with the 2-hour movie "24: Redemption" and he will be back protecting the nation full-time come January. So we got that going for us, which is nice. Here's to hoping that 2009 is a better year all-around, not just for '24' fans, but for Philly Cops, Eagles fans, Republicans, and anyone else who pays any attention to this blog. God bless the family of Tim Simpson, may they somehow find peace and healing this holiday season.

Donovan and Eagles at a Crossroads

Despite what the gloom and doom crowd at 610 WIP AM Sports Talk radio would tell you, the Philadelphia Eagles football team does not stink. Their coach does not need to be fired. Their quarterback is not washed up. Eagles fans have become spoiled by the Andy Reid era. That is a fact. They must have forgotten the Ray Rhodes era that preceded it, when the team went 29-34-1 over a four year period. Or perhaps the Rich Kotite era before that, when the team went 36-28 over four years but only made the playoffs once. Maybe they loved those brash Buddy Ryan years before that, every one a winning regular season. Of course there was that little matter of zero playoff wins. None. Marion Campbell, the 'Swamp Fox', and his 17-29-1 over three years and no playoffs? Forget those. Fact is that since the end of Dick Vermeil's final full season in 1981 and the start of the Reid Era, the Eagles floundered, sputtered, and crashed after brief periods of soaring. Fact is also that since the end of Reid's first season he has guided the team to an 88-52-1 regular season record, 8 playoff wins, 4 NFC east division titles, an NFC championship, and a narrow Super Bowl defeat to this decade's dynasty team. The biggest mistake that professional sports teams make is hiring the wrong manager/coach. The 2nd biggest that they make is hiring the right guy, then giving up on him when the going gets tough. The organizations that remain the strongest consistently, year-in and year-out over lengthy periods of time, which is exactly what their fan base wants, are the organizations that keep their good coach through the tough times. The fact is that the Eagles are in a transition period with their personnel, they play in a tough division with superior competitors, and their superstar running back is playing at less than 100%. Andy Reid and his staff deserve a full chance to work their way through this tough period. My bet is that they quickly have the team back in contention. Of course that's not to say that they aren't in contention right now. The team sits at 5-4-1, just a half game off the final Wildcard pace. Their defense has allowed the 8th lowest points in the entire NFL. Only 5 teams have scored more points than their offense. The simple fact is that they remain one of the top teams in the league. They don't get blown out. They do not get dominated. In other words, to say they 'stink' is to completely ignore reality. They are in such a difficult playoff situation because they have not come through in critical situations in close games, not because they are any worse than any of the teams to whom they lost. Their four losses were twice by 4 points, once by 5, once by 6, and then there is last week's dispiriting tie with Cincinnati. Their five wins have all been by more than a touchdown. In other words, this is a good team. They have simply suffered some bad breaks, and some bad breakdowns at key moments. You can blame that on poor coaching decisions and be correct in a few instances. You can blame that on the inability of players to make plays, and be just as correct. You can also look at the fact that their most dynamic offensive component, running back Brian Westbrook, has been a shadow of his Pro Bowl self in an injury-marred season. The Eagles are in a four-team race with Washington, Dallas, and Atlanta for the final playoff spot. A look at all of their schedules shows that none has a real advantage. In other words, the Eagles are a playoff contender during a difficult season. On Sunday they have a difficult challenge in playing at Baltimore, an AFC contender with a defense as good as the Eagles. It should be a defensive struggle for both clubs. It is up to Donovan McNabb, the veteran quarterback whose career in Philadelphia (but certainly not his entire NFL career) is perhaps at as big a crossroads as this team's season. If McNabb steps up and leads the team to victory this week, the Eagles stay in contention, the WIP crowd is silenced for at least a week, and McNabb stock rises. If the Ravens dominate him and win the game, the Eagles season is likely over, and perhaps McNabb's career here as well. The Philadelphia Eagles and their longtime quarterback are indeed at a crossroads. Their coach should not be considered in the same light.

Who is This Marshawn Lynch Fella Anyway?

I used to play Fantasy Football regularly, and was usually pretty good at it too. With a bunch of guys that I knew from my former profession in banking, I kept playing into my early years with the police department. But somewhere around the turn of the century, I dropped out. Part of the reasoning was that I just wanted to simplify things a bit, to get rid of some things that were taking up my time and effort. You see, when I get involved in stuff like that, I get involved. It's fun, sure, but it's not all just fun, I have to win too. So that means that I have to know as much information as possible, which involves reading on the web and in magazines, watching TV shows, watching games, etc. For the past 8-10 years without Fantasy Football, I have found that I enjoyed watching Eagles games so much more. Of course this may also have had something to do with the fact that during this period the Eagles got really good thanks to Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, et al. I found that I didn't at all miss the Sunday ritual of checking the highlight shows to see if any of my guys had big games, scored touchdowns, and so on. I enjoyed football much more without the Fantasy element. So with all that good stuff, why am I back in the game, cramming suddenly for a Draft to be held tomorrow (Friday) night? Good question. A few guys that I work with are involved, and asked, so I am gonna take the plunge again. I looked down the list of NFL kickers as currently ranked by one of the rating services, and I didn't even know 12 of the top 13 names listed. I don't know the vast majority of the RB's and WR's, and even a few of the QB's. Heck, if it wasn't for some stupid ESPN commercials, I would have never heard of Maurice Jones-Drew at all. So here I sit, having to decide which two players from the team that I have inherited in an ongoing league that I might want as 'Keepers' for my team. I am leaning towards keeping a guy named Marshawn Lynch, because the websites and magazines rate him as around the 10th-15th best player overall. But I don't really know who the heck he is, outside of being a RB on the Buffalo Bills. It is so much different than when I left the Fantasy game a decade ago, when I knew all the players and was educated well on the trends. Now I am playing catchup, which probably means that I am donating my $120 entry fee. At least for this year. Unless of course this Marshawn guy is a stud, and maybe I can spackle and duct tape together enough luck to steal something early. Hope springs eternal on Draft night, where the real fun is enjoyed anyway. Am I ready for some football? Here goes nothin'.
NOTE: The league that I joined decided on Draft night to "redraft" with no 'Keepers' this year, so Lynch was not mine in the end. My first four picks were: Clinton Portis RB, Ryan Grant RB, Steve Smith WR, Donovan McNabb QB

Big Red Opens Green Camp

The Philadelphia Eagles opened training camp for their upcoming 2008 season on Monday at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, PA. The camp will run from now through August 13th, when the Birds will pack up and head to Philly. The Birds open their pre-season schedule at the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 8th, then open at home on August 14th against the Carolina Panthers. The team will then close out it's pre-season with games at New England and at home against the New York Jets. Coming into camp, the Birds have been installed by the odds makers in Las Vegas as the 3rd best team in the NFC. Unfortunately, they are also the 3rd best team in their own NFC East division. Vegas has the Dallas Cowboys as the NFC favorites, with the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants ranked just slightly ahead of our Birds at this point. Over in the AFC, New England is the favorite, and is the overall favorite as well, followed by Indianapolis and San Diego tied for the 2nd overall favorite to win it all. Jacksonville is the 4th highest rated club, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are tied with the Eagles for 7th overall. The success or failure of the upcoming season is, as always, in the hands of Donovan McNabb. At age 31, McNabb will be starting his 10th NFL season at the helm of the Birds 'West Coast' offense, and will be trying to rally a club that started slow a year ago as he recovered from injury. In the end, McNabb didn't have a bad season last year. He was able to play in 14 of the club's 16 games, tossing over 3,000 yards for the 5th time in his career. His quarterback rating of 89.9 was the 3rd highest of his career, the 2nd highest among full seasons that he has played, and he completed over 61% of his passes. It was in many ways perhaps his 2nd best statistical season, trailing only the magical 2004 of 'T.O' and the Super Bowl. However, McNabb was often tentative through the first 2/3 of the year, when the Eagles struggled and fell to a 5-8 record before rallying to finish at 8-8 by winning their final three games. The Birds have some questions coming in: will the three-headed cornerback rotation of stars Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown and newcomer Assante Samuel work in practice? Will Brian Westbrook be able to get happy with his contract situation, stay healthy, and remain one of the top multi-purpose backs in the NFL? Can Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and L.J. Smith team with McNabb to form a fully functional, productive receiving corps? Will Jim Johnson's noted 'bend but don't break' defense actually bend a little less, and break a little lesser? Will Marty Mornhinweg get the offense into the end zone from the Red Zone more often? And perhaps most importantly, can the Birds coaching staff fix the horrible problems on Special Teams that killed the club so often in 2007? The Eagles are once again a very talented football team, and they are led by one of the best coaches in the league over the past decade in Andy Reid, who has guided them to five NFC East titles, four NFC title games, and a Super Bowl appearance. Reid's very public family troubles of a year ago are largely behind him now, and his concentration should be totally back in the game. 'Big Red' and his staff know what it takes to win, and given health there is every reason to believe that the Eagles will get off to a better start this year. They remain the most dangerous team in the league after Thanksgiving, so what happens between the September 7th home opener at the Linc vs. the St. Louis Rams and that Turkey Day tilt with the Arizona Cardinals (yes, the Birds are on Thanksgiving this year, at home) will likely determine their season. This fan has rose, or should I say green-colored glasses. I predict that the Eagles will stay healthy and once again win their division, with starring turns from McNabb and Westbrook. Time will tell, but in the middle of the summer at the beginning of training camp, we are all allowed to dream of next January's NFL Super Bowl. The Phils will deservedly keep getting our attention here in the Philly sports world, but it's also time to start following the Birds. Time's yours...