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Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB. Show all posts

Friday, March 25, 2011

MLB 2011: Philadelphia Phillies

Charlie Manuel, new contract in hand, skippers the N.L. favorites


Whatever you may want to call the Phillies starting pitching rotation, and there have been at least a half dozen nicknames tossed around town over the last few months, it will be those arms that make or break this particular version of the Fightin' Phils as they shoot for a 4th straight N.L. East division title. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels make for the best starting pitching rotation that baseball has seen for years, perhaps ever.

Halladay will turn 34 years old in mid-May, and he is clearly the Ace among Aces. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner last year in his first season with the Phils (it was his 2nd career Cy Young), the man known as 'Doc' tossed a perfect game last season, and then pitched a no-hitter to open the playoffs. He has been an all-star in 7 of the past 9 seasons. He has logged more than 220 innings pitched for the past 5 straight seasons.

When Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees tens-of-millions in order to return to a place that he claimed to love, he immediately renewed what was becoming a passionate affair with Phillies fans over the last few months of the 2009 season. After leading that Phils club to the World Series, Lee moved to Texas and led that club to it's first-ever Series appearance last year. He has been comfortably above the 200 innings pitched mark the past 3 seasons, and won the 2008 A.L. Cy Young Award. He won't run 33 until Labor Day weekend.

Roy Oswalt turns 34 a day before Lee turns 33, and would be the lead Ace on almost any other team in the Majors. Oswalt has been over the 200 innings pitched in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and was the 2005 NLCS MVP when he led the Astros into that franchise' only-ever World Series appearance. Cole Hamels is the kid of the group at 27 years of age, and is the only career-long member of the franchise. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP, Hamels has been over the 180 innings pitched mark for the last 4 straight years, and may be in line for a dominating season pitching out of the #4 slot in the rotation.

Put those four arms at the front of any team in baseball, and you have a contender. But that's not all the Phillies have at their disposal on the mound. There is the current 5th starter, Joe Blanton, who is a legitimate #3 for most teams and solid #3-4 on any contending club. The 30-year old righty has been over the 170 inning mark in every single full season that he has pitched. 26-year old Kyle Kendrick pitched over 180 innings last year. Clearly the Phils have more than enviable depth that not only would serve them well throughout a long season, but it also can make for valuable trade bait should any holes develop in the everyday lineup or bullpen.

That everyday lineup has previously been the Phillies calling card. The booming bats and lightening legs combination in the batting order of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and supporting players such as Pat Burrell, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and others led the Fightin's to their early successes in winning the 2007 division title and the 2008 World Series. Longtime cornerstones Burrell and Werth are gone now (Pat the Bat having won another World Series last year with the Giants) and both injuries and age are creeping up on some of the rest.

Let's start out with the apparently healthy guys. Ryan Howard is believed to have had a down year last season. But the 31-year old slugging 1st baseman bashed 31 homers and drove in 108 runs despite missing nearly a month with an injury. In his prime, healthy, and in shape, Howard should be primed for another big 35-40 homerun season out of the cleanup slot. At 30 years old, the dynamic Shane Victorino has now won 3 straight NL Gold Gloves in centerfield, and he was 3rd in the league last year in both triples and stolen bases. Left fielder Raul Ibanez will turn 39-years old in early June, and is likely beginning his final season in Philly. He is a supporting bat now, still fully capable of a .270-20 homer-80 rbi season. Carlos Ruiz is the catcher, and one of the best in the game at both handling a pitching staff and in his catch-and-throw skills. He is also a tremendous clutch hitter.

The rest of the bats may make or break the entire Phillies season. At the start of spring training it was expected that top prospect phenom Domonic Brown would battle veteran Ben Francisco to replace the productive Werth in right field. But Brown broke the hamate bone in his hand early in camp, and Francisco had a strong spring to apparently nail down the job, at least to start the season. His ability to be productive in his first real chance as a starting regular in the Majors will be one key, as will Brown's return from injury by mid-summer. 3rd baseman Placido Polanco is now 35-years old and coming off a solid season in which he was limited by an elbow injury. He has been slow this spring to recover fully, but should be healthy and the Phils should be able to expect a little more than last year's 6 homers and 52 rbi.

The biggest questions and answers in the Phillies lineup concern the mega-talented Keystone combo of 2nd baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins. Both players turned 32 years old this winter, missed major chunks of the 2010 season with injury problems, and are going in completely opposite directions this spring. For JRoll it appears to be a year of recovery and a return to being the dynamic, driving force at the top of the team's batting order. For Utley, it's more injury concerns, this time a chronic, cranky right knee that has just not responded thus far to simple rest. Chase has not played in a game during spring training, will start the year on the DL, and is likely out at least until May.

The Phillies can likely get by with Utley out even for a couple of months. As long as Rollins, Howard, Ibanez, Polanco, Victorino, Francisco and Ruiz remain healthy, the lineup will have plenty enough offensive strength to compliment the outstanding starting pitching. 2nd base will likely be professionally manned for defensive purposes by Wilson Valdez, who was excellent spelling Utley, Rollins and Polanco last season during their various injuries. Veteran Luis Castillo has been brought in at the end of spring for a quick look-see, but must seriously impress to stick. The bench has talent and experience in Ross Gload, Brian Schneider and John Mayberry. Either Michael Martinez or Brian Bocock are also likely to help as depth.

Besides the big losses of Utley and Brown, the bullpen is where the 3rd big loss has developed. Closer Brad Lidge is now scheduled to begin the season on the DL for the 3rd time in his 4 seasons with the Phillies. The man who was "Lights Out" and perfect for the '08 World Series champs collapsed in '09, but then rebounded nicely last year. Until he is ready to go, the end of games will likely fall to either perennial back-end guy Ryan Madson or wily veteran Jose Contreras. Veteran lefty J.C. Romero is also back. The rest of the pen will come from some combination of righties Danys Baez and Scott Mathieson, and lefties Antonio Bastardo and Mike Zagurski. All may be needed at one time or another to get the club through, though with the Big Four starters all burning up major innings totals, that will alleviate a need for middle-innings relief most nights.

Fortunately for the Philadelphia Phillies, they are being guided by one of the most professional players managers in the history of the game in Charlie Manuel. The man who has gone from a talk-show joke to the beloved "Uncle Charlie" thanks to his success was rewarded this off-season with a contract extension. Manuel's calm hand and down-home style guided the team through last year's injury debacle, and he is the perfect man at the helm of this ship to guide it through almost any type of storm. He is likely to ride the big horses in his rotation and whatever regulars in the lineup are healthy as far as they will take him, which should be pretty far once again.

In my previous two MLB predictions articles here, I tipped my hand that I was predicting the Phillies to win their 5th straight N.L. East crown, their 3rd National League pennant in 4 seasons, and then lose a dramatic and exciting World Series to the Boston Red Sox. The Fightin' Phils could just as easily win that Series if all of their starting pitchers are healthy and clicking come October. However, the one big thing that could keep the team from even meeting that ultimate goal is injuries. The fans who will once again sellout every date at Citizens Bank Park have to hope that the Utley, Lidge and Brown situations don't end up becoming a harbinger of things to come.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

MLB 2011: National League



Call them what you like, because they've had 'em all hung on them at one time or another over this past winter. The "Phab Four", the "Four Aces", the "Four Horsemen", whatever. Just as long as Charlie Manuel can call on them every fifth day, the Philadelphia Phillies will win their 5th straight N.L. East crown and their 3rd National League pennant in four years before falling in one of the best World Series in decades to the Boston Red Sox. At least that's the call here.

I'll cover the Fightin' Phils and all the specific reasons in my next article here in the coming days. Let's spend some time talking about who will be doing the chasing, and who can take their place should those injury woes become overwhelming. Last year I said that the Atlanta Braves might be the one team that could give the Phils a run for their money in the N.L. East, and I was right on there. In Bobby Cox' final season at the helm, Atlanta stayed with the Phils for most of the season, even leading the division for awhile, and made it into the playoffs as the N.L. Wildcard before bowing to the eventual pennant-winning Giants in a tough playoff series.

The Braves may have an intimidating lineup if everything goes right. If Chipper Jones stays healthy. If rookie 1st sacker Freddie Freeman is a Rookie of the Year contender. If their young rotation and bullpen arms all hold up and produce. With newcomer Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann joining last year's phenom Jason Heyward, the Braves should again contend for the division and playoff races.
I just don't believe that Jones can hold up, and that every single thing will go right in Atlanta. Behind the Braves, the dropoff to the Marlins is significant, and even more so to the sinking Mets and the growing Nats.

Last year in the N.L. Central, I said that Cincinnati was a "dark horse" contender. The Reds got more pitching than I thought they would, and put together a division-winning season before running into Roy Halladay and a veteran Phillies team in the playoffs. I also picked Milwaukee to win the division a year ago. I'm going to do it yet again. The Brewers will edge out Cincy in a final weekend battle for the division crown in what will be the best rest in all of baseball, with both the Cubs and the Cardinals staying in it into the final month. Milwaukee strengthened it's pitching rotation this off-season enough to make their lineup led by free agent-to-be Prince Fielder and all-star outfielder Ryan Braun the favorites. Houston and Pittsburgh will be after-thoughts here.

Out in the N.L. West is where the World Series champion San Francisco Giants reside. Led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and closer Brian Wilson, the GMen overcame a mediocre offense to win it all. Last year, that is exactly the recipe that I said they would need if they wanted to do it, and it happened. It won't happen again. Last year I picked the Colorado Rockies to win this division, and as with the Brew Crew in the Central, I am going to do it yet again. The Rox have a legit MVP contender in Carlos Gonzalez and a ton of talent behind him. In fact, I even think that the Dodgers may have enough to beat out San Fran this time around. Those three should battle hard all season, into the final month, with both Arizona and San Diego lagging way in back of that contending pack.

So let's call it the Phillies, Brewers, and Rockies to win the divisional races. I see five clubs as serious N.L. Wildcard contenders here: the Braves, Reds, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants. I'll say that enough things do go right that Atlanta edges out Cincy for the Wildcard playoff spot. I'll take the Phils and Rockies to reach the NLCS, where Philly's "Four Whatevers" dominate the Rockie hitters and lead the Fightin's into another World Series appearance.

For the National League award winners, I'll go with my pick from a year ago to actually win the MVP race this time, and that would be Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. In the Cy Young race, I'm going to take Cole Hamels pitching out of that #4 spot for Philly. As the Rookie of the Year, let's go with Cincy's flame-throwing reliever (for now) Aroldis Chapman. And as the Manager of the Year, I'll take the Cubs Mike Quade for a surprise contending job. Just what specifically it is that I like about those Phillies, what I think can cause them trouble, and why I think they fall short to Boston in the Fall Classic are all topics for the next post.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

MLB 2011: American League


I wonder how Philadelphia Phillies fans would feel about Terry Francona (above) managing his club to a World Series title for the 3rd time? Especially if this time those Boston Red Sox defeat the Fightin' Phils for the world championship, as I am predicting is going to happen in late October of 2011.

The American League's East Division is where you can find the greatest blood feud in baseball history, that between the Bosox and their hated southern neighbors, the dynastic New York Yankees. Both clubs have had recent success, with the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007, and the Yanks winning it all in 2009. For this coming season, I am picking the two clubs to battle for the A.L. East crown, and for Boston to come out on top.

The Red Sox struggled through an injury-marred 2010 and missed the post-season. But over this past winter the club was reinforced with a pair of game-changing offensive talents in 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford. AGonz will bang the ball all over Fenway Park, and Crawford's speed paired with that of Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Bosox' game something new with which to challenge opponents. Add in 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, 3rd sacker Kevin Youkilis, and veteran right fielder J.D. Drew and Boston has some of the best offensive talent in the game. On the mound the Sox are deep and talented in both their rotation and in the bullpen, with a tremendous mix of veterans such as Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon and kids such as Jon Lester and Daniel Bard. This is, given reasonable health, clearly the team to beat.

The Yankees lineup is aging in spots, particularly on the left side of the infield where future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez perform. But both of these players will be back and should perform well in the coming season, and Jeter should become the first Yankee in history to reach the 3,000 career hits milestone. With Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, this may be the best all-around infield in baseball. The Yanks appear to be a little short on outfield pop, and their starting pitching has serious depth problems.

However, the bullpen has the best closer in baseball history in Mariano Rivera being setup now by one of the best in recent years, Rafael Soriano. The Yanks also now have shutdown lefty relievers, and have plenty of cash with which to eventually shore up any weaknesses. They will contend once again.

In 2 of the past 3 seasons, it has not been Boston or New York that has won this tough division. Instead, the Tampa Bay Rays have vaulted past both and finished on top. However, the small-market Rays began to lose talent to free agency this off-season, including Crawford to Boston, and do not appear to have the firepower beyond all-star 3rd sacker Evan Longoria to stay with those top two dogs this time around. The Rays pitching should keep them ahead of both Buck Showalter's improving Baltimore Orioles and a slugging Toronto Blue Jays squad to round out the A.L. East standings.

In the A.L. Central, I can see a case being made for any one of three clubs winning this race, but I am going to put my money down on the Chicago White Sox at this point. Manager Ozzie Guillen has a multi-talented club with a strong bullpen. If they get any kind of reasonable production out of Jake Peavy, they may win the division comfortably. Even if not, they still get my nod to win in a squeaker over the Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies are always dangerous, but may be facing some health issues with franchise cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. If both of those guys find some way to get and stay healthy the majority of the season, look for the Twins to again be serious division title contenders.

The team that might surprise here in the A.L. Central is the Detroit Tigers. Skipper Jim Leyland feels he has talent and depth. He just might have enough to make a run at the club's first title since moving to the Central Division in 2008. Since reaching the 2006 World Series as the division's first-ever Wildcard team, Leyland has generally had the club in some form of contention. It will be largely up to the pitching staff if this current club wants to return to the post-season. Both Cleveland and Kansas City appear to be after-thoughts, although before the year is out we may begin to see the first signs of the Royals' top-rated farm system bring some long overdue excitement back to KC.

Out in the American League West Division we find baseball's only 4-team alignment. Legendary pitcher Nolan Ryan fronted a bid to buy the Texas Rangers last season, and his group emerged victorious in that battle. His team then emerged victorious in the division and playoff battles, reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history. It says here that despite losing ace Cliff Lee, the Rangers and A.L. MVP Josh Hamilton will still have enough to hold off the always dangerous Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Halos still look to be clearly the only team that has the firepower to keep up with Texas. The Oakland A's have some strong young pitching, enough to perhaps keep things interesting on their side of the Bay for awhile this summer, but neither they nor the Seattle Mariners should provide much competition in the end.

So with Boston, Chicago, and Texas all picked as divisional winners, the only race left would be for the A.L. Wildcard spot. I see three clubs as serious contenders for that, and would rank them in this order: the Yankees, the Angels, and finally the Twins. The dark horse contender team is the Detroit Tigers, with the Tampa Bay Rays also being a potential longshot playoff contender if all of their questions are answered right. I am going to call it a "Battle of the Sox" in the ALCS, with Boston's red downing Chicago's white, and with the Bosox then taking home their 3rd World Series title in 8 years.

For the award winners, lets go with Adrian Gonzalez of Boston as the A.L. MVP, with Tampa Bay's David Price as the Cy Young Award winner, and with the White Sox' outstanding young lefty arm Chris Sale as the A.L. Rookie of the Year. Guillen will win the Manager of the Year for guiding those Pale Hose to the Central crown. Aside from the real battles between the contenders, real baseball fans should pay attention late in the season to both Baltimore and Kansas City, as each young club should be showcasing some excellent kids who may bring those two former contenders back to the glory days some season soon.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Eight Men Out, One Man In

Today is the 90th anniversary of a landmark day in the history of Major League Baseball. On this date in 1921, the owners elected Kenesaw 'Mountain' Landis to the newly created position of Commissioner. His job, to do whatever it took to restore confidence in the American public following the infamous "Black Sox" scandal of 1919.

The reasons for the creation of the position and for Landis' specific hiring constitute an important and interesting chapter in the history of America's pastime. The National League was founded in 1876, replacing the old National Association that had been formed in 1871 to begin some type of organization for the blossoming sport on a national level.

The American League was founded in 1900 from origins as the Western League which had been itself formed in 1893. In 1901, the A.L. elevated itself to major league status and became direct competition for the N.L.'s senior circuit. In 1903, the champions of the two leagues met in the first World Series, a competition that became permanent in 1905.

In 1919, the A.L.'s Chicago White Sox were considered the best team in the game at that time, led by one of the true early legends in the sport, 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson. The Sox had won the World Series of 1917, and were prohibitive favorites in this World Series against the N.L.'s Cincinnati Reds, but the Reds ended up winning what was then a best-of-9 games event, 5 games to 3.

During that 1919 series, rumors began to surface that a "fix" was in, that professional gamblers had successfully paid off some of the White Sox key players to "throw" the series in the Reds favor. These allegations and rumors continued into and through the 1920 season, and a grand jury was finally convened to investigate the matter. The grand jury convened as the Sox were again battling for the A.L. pennant. When Jackson and a teammate, the team's best pitcher Eddie Cicotte, confessed their involvement to the grand jury, Sox owner Charles Comiskey suspended 8 players believed to have been involved, costing them the 1920 pennant.

A highly publicized trial of the 8 players who were allegedly involved took place. One young boy is famously quoted as approaching Jackson with the plea "Say it ain't so, Joe. Say it ain't so."
Key evidence, including the signed confessions of Cicotte and Jackson went missing. Both men recanted these confessions. There were numerous scandalous incidents during the proceedings. In the end, the jury found the players "not guilty", and it was presumed that they would simply continue on with their careers.

However, Major League Baseball was not happy. The legal jury verdict was obviously a result of a combination of the farcical trial incidents and some hero-worship among the jurors. The owners knew that gamblers had their hands in the outcome of some games almost since the inception of the Major Leagues, and needed to eliminate that influence and win back the integrity of the game in order to keep the respect and interest of the increasingly skeptical fans.

To this end, the owners decided that they needed someone strong, forceful and popular to lead the game's efforts. Prior to that point, administration of the sport such as arbiting disputes among owners was done by a National Commission created as a part of the 1903 peace agreement between the N.L. and A.L. The NC was made up of the President's of both leagues, as well as a Commission chairman.

The owners choice for the Commission chairman job was none other than Landis, an Illinois federal judge who had presided over a famous anti-trust case regarding Standard Oil, and who had popularly presided over the trials of numerous Socialists who were trying to influence the United States in a variety of ways, including hindering the draft efforts for the American forces in World War I. Landis agreed to accept the post, but not as then constructed. He insisted on an all-powerful position as sole Commissioner of Baseball.

The owners agreed, giving him full authority to act, as he demanded, "in the best interests of baseball" as relating to any matter. He was appointed to the post of Commissioner on the same day that the White Sox players were convicted, and the following day Landis made his now legendary proclamation:

"Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player who throws a ball game, no player who undertakes or promises to throw a ball game, no player who sits in confidence with a bunch of crooked ballplayers and gamblers where the ways and means of throwing a game are discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball." 

The 8 players were permanently banned from baseball with this statement. Two other players who were peripherally involved were also eventually banned. The cheating members of that 1919 team became nicknamed the "Black Sox" by the media. The entire incident was famously immortalized in the popular 1988 film "Eight Men Out", which itself was based on a book Eliot Asinof titled "Eight Men Out: The Black Sox and the 1919 World Series."

The owners thought that following his role in resolving the scandal, that Judge Landis would ease into light activity in a semi-retirement role. However, Landis had other ideas, and using his popularity with both the public and the press, he ended up presiding over the game for the next quarter century. Among the many improvements to the game during his reign were an end to hooliganism by many player, the negotiation of broadcasting contracts as first radio and then television began to cover the sport, and negotiating ends to some negative labor practices by owners. Landis also infamously perpetuated the segregation of baseball throughout his reign, and severely restricted MLB control over minor league baseball.

Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis (pictured above with Hall of Famer Ty Cobb) was undoubtedly the right man at the right time in dealing with the Black Sox scandal in particular and the issue of overthrowing the gamblers influence and returning the integrity of the game of professional baseball. He was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame just one month after his death, and the MVP Award in both leagues is officially named after him.

The aftermath of the infamous 1919 World Series saw eight men, the notorious White Sox players, out of the game permanently and one man, the Commissioner of Baseball, first in the person of Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis, introduced into the game. Both results would have to be considered as victories in the end for all true fans of America's national pastime.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Dutchman Curves Out Spot in Hall

On June 2nd, 1970, while I was just a little 8-year old wrapping up the 3rd grade year at Our Lady of Mount Carmel school in South Philly and had not yet become the big baseball fan that I have since, the Minnesota Twins called up from their minor league system a 19-year old right handed pitcher by the name of Bert Blyleven.

In that first abbreviated season of four months length, the kid with just 21 minor league starts under his belt used a devastating curveball to help him rack up 10 victories for Minnesota. For that debut performance The Sporting News selected him as it's American League 'Rookie of the Year' for 1970.

Over the ensuing two decades, Blyleven continued to bedevil hitters in both the A.L. and N.L. with what became widely regarded by the end of his career as the best curveball ever thrown in the long history of the sport. He used that curveball to help two different clubs, the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 1987 Minnesota Twins, win the World Series. He was the 1989 A.L. Comeback Player of the Year, a 2-time All-Star, and pitched a no-hitter in 1977.

Blyleven completed more than a third of his 685 career starts over 23 seasons, winning 287 games and registering 60 shutouts. He also used that curve to strikeout 3,701 batters which leaves him fourth on the all-time list behind only a quartet of living legends: Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, and Roger Clemens.

On Wednesday afternoon, a long injustice was finally, mercifully righted when Bert Blyleven was voted permanent enshrinement into the Baseball Hall of Fame. His election came in his 14th year of eligibility, leading to the obvious question: what took the voters so long?

The facts show that at the time he was first eligible in 1998, Blyleven was the best eligible pitcher not in the Hall of Fame at that point. Now that, of course, does not in itself mean he should have been enshrined. However, with his statistical achievements over a storied career, the man known as "the Dutchman" do to his having been born in Holland should certainly have been enshrined early in his eligibility.

Instead of early enshrinement, Blyleven found himself being named on only 17.55% of the necessary 75% of the voters ballots that first year. By the 2nd year of his eligibility, Ryan was elected to the Hall, and Blyleven had dropped to just 14.1% of the voters support.

Voters then seemed to begin slowly evaluating Blyleven's stats and his worthiness. He had climbed to over 35% of the voters by 2004, and by 2006 he had received 53.3% of the voters ballots. No one who has ever received more than 50% has failed to eventually become enshrined in the Hall of Fame, and Blyleven's support continued to rise as more and more voters began to realize the injustice of his having been passed over for so long.

The ridiculousness of what is running through the minds of some voters is a topic for another, lengthier article. Suffice it to say that during the period in which Blyleven was being passed over for enshrinement, votes were being cast for players who had no business receiving the support from any voter who knows what they are doing.

Good but obviously unworthy players such as Walt Weiss, Rick Dempsey, John Candelaria, and Steve Sax received votes for the Hall of Fame. Phillies fans will be happy to know that some voter in consecutive years cast ballots for John Kruk, Lenny Dykstra, and Darren Daulton. Nice players all. Hall of Famers, none. Ludicrous.

Finally the voters have gotten it right, although it says here that Bert Blyleven, who has gone on to a colorful 2nd career in the game as a broadcaster for his beloved Twins, should still have received even more than the 79.7% of the vote that he did eventually receive. He will enter the Hall of Fame officially in ceremonies this coming summer that will also honor 2nd baseman Roberto Alomar and former Phils GM Pat Gillick.

Now the question will turn to the next Blyleven, candidates who are worthy of selection but who have not yet gained admittance to baseball's most exclusive club where less than 1% of those who have ever played the professional game have managed to enter. The Hall of Fame voters take up the cases next year of players such as Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell and Lee Smith, all of whom would have joined both Alomar and Blyleven on my own personal ballot this past year.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A Decade of Parity and History

In western historical terms, there was no year '0', so most people realize that an official decade truly runs from the year ending in '1' through the 10th year.

This means that 2001 opened the true first year, and the recent 2010 season ended the final year of the first decade of the 21st century.

For all of the talk about payrolls in baseball and a fear of competitive imbalance, here is the bottom line fact as it relates to that recently completed first decade: 9 different teams won the World Series.

The only franchise that was able to win multiple World Series titles was the one that opened the decade with a supposed jinx or curse, one that hadn't won in 90 years. That franchise was the Boston Red Sox, who won in 2004 and then again took the crown in 2007.

League or Divisional assignments didn't matter this past decade either. The two leagues evenly split the World Series victories at 5 apiece, and teams from every division won titles. The Phillies ('08) and Marlins ('03) from the N.L. East, the Cardinals ('06) from the N.L. Central, the Diamondbacks ('01) and Giants ('10) from the N.L. West gave the National League 5 titles. In addition to Boston's two titles, the Yankees ('09) joined from the A.L. East, the White Sox ('05) won from the A.L. Central, and the Angels ('02) from the A.L. West to give the American League 5 titles as well.

The Yankees did begin the decade by dominating their A.L. East division, winning the first 6 crowns. But Boston won in '07, and the Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of the last 3 seasons. In the A.L. Central, the small-market Minnesota Twins won 6 of the 10 division titles, with the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox winning twice each. In the A.L. West, the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels won 5 crowns, the Oakland A's took 3, and both Seattle and Texas won once each. In addition, the Detroit Tigers made the playoffs as a Wildcard team during the decade.

In the N.L., the Phillies have won the last 4 straight titles, and the Atlanta Braves won the decade's first 5 crowns. In between, the New York Mets won once.
 The N.L. Central has seen the Saint Louis Cardinals take 5 titles, with the Chicago Cubs winning 3, and with Houston and Cincinnati each winning once. The N.L. West has been the definition of parity with the LA Dodgers (3), Arizona Diamondbacks (3), San Francisco Giants (2) and San Diego Padres (2) all taking titles. Add playoff Wildcard appearances by Florida, Colorado and Milwaukee, and the N.L. has been even more up for grabs than their A.L. counterparts.

The true bottom line for building and keeping a winning, title-contending team over the past decade has not so much been the 'bottom line' of finance, but the always decisive bottom line of talent evaluation and sound decision-making. A strong organization with responsible ownership, the right talent evaluators, skilled coaches, and fearless management makes the final difference almost every time. That was proven over the past decade, despite the varied revenue opportunities of baseball's franchises.

The decade brought us incredible, historical moments. In that first year, there was the response to the attacks on America on September 11th, 2001. Baseball rightly took a step back by cancelling all games for a week. It also came back at the correct time. On Monday night, September 17th, I was blessed and humbled to be in the stands at Veteran's Stadium in Philadelphia with my wife and a capacity crowd as the Phillies met the Atlanta Braves on that first night back. A night of flag-waving, tear-flowing patriotism that signalled we would not be beaten, would not be laid low. We would carry on, strongly and proudly. It was one of the most memorable evenings in my entire life.

The post-9/11 World Series that year featured the Yankees, carrying the prayers and hearts of not only New Yorkers but of many in America with them, against the Arizona Diamondbacks featuring the incredible 1-2 pitching punch of Curt Schilling and Randy 'The Big Unit' Johnson. The Yanks were ultimately beaten in one of the most memorable series of all-time when Arizona's Luis Gonzalez blooped a series-winning, bases loaded single off legendary closer Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th inning of Game #7.

That 2001 baseball season was also highlighted by Barry Bonds record-setting 73 homeruns. In 2002, Bonds would be around for the Fall Classic when for the 2nd straight season the World Series went the full 7-game distance. And for the 2nd consecutive season it was a franchise winning it's first-ever championship as the Anaheim Angels, to the crack of their fans red 'boom sticks' and the antics of a scoreboard controlled 'Rally Monkey' rallied from a 3 games to 2 deficit, and a 5-0 deficit late in Game #6, to defeat Bonds and the San Francisco Giants.

Those would be the last two World Series of the decade that would go the distance. In fact, 6 of the last 7 World Series have been decided in 5 games or less. In 2003, the Florida Marlins won perhaps the decade's least likely title, upsetting the Yankees in 6 games behind the stellar pitching of young ace Josh Beckett.

The 2004 season provided true baseball history. First came the ALCS, where the Yankees bolted ahead of the Red Sox to a 3 games to none lead. The Bosox then began the greatest comeback in MLB history, taking a pair of extra-innings contests to get back into the series. In Game #6, Curt Schilling miraculously took the mound, overcoming a serious ankle injury with guts, gumption, and some help from the medical staff in what would become known in baseball lore as the now-legendary "Bloody Sock" game (pictured.) He pitched them to the series tie, and the Bosox throttled the Yanks in the 7th game, completing baseball's first-ever and still only rally from an 0-3 series deficit. The Sox went on to sweep the World Series and put to rest the ghost of the 9-decades old "Curse of the Bambino".

In 2005 another long-running streak of futility came to an end as the Chicago White Sox would win their first World Series crown in a half-century. Led by colorful manager Ozzie Guillen, the Chisox swept the Houston Astros for the title. The Astros were participating in the first-ever World Series for the franchise. It remains their only appearance. As of the end of the decade, neither the Seattle Mariners or Washington Nationals (formerly Montreal Expos) franchises have ever appeared in the World Series. In addition to Houston, Seattle and Washington, the San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers have yet to win a World Series.

The Saint Louis Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, led by Albert Pujols, who was perhaps the decade's greatest individual player. Pujols was the NL's Rookie of the Year in 2001 as the decade began. He was an All-Star every year except 2002. He was a 3-time NL MVP, 6-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner, and won homerun, batting and rbi titles during the decade. He slugged 408 homeruns, ripped 1,900 total hits, and batted a lofty .331 over the totality of the decade. By decade's end, he would be selected by both Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News as the sport's 'Player of the Decade' honoree.

After the Red Sox were led by manager Terry Francona to their 2nd World Series crown of the decade in 2007, it was Francona's old team, the Philadelphia Phillies, who would put an entire city's futility to an end in the 2008 World Series. With the weight of a quarter-century of pro sports teams not winning a league championship in any major sport, by far the longest such streak of futility in the nation, the Phillies used a homegrown core of players in Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Madson, and NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels to end the streak.

The Phillies had a 3 games to 1 lead on the young and talented Tampa Bay Rays heading into Game #5 at Citizens Bank Park. The game began under a threat of rain, and that threat turned to reality as the game got underway. By the middle innings the night had deteriorated into monsoon-like conditions. With the two teams tied and the field reduced to water and mud piles, the umpires finally called the proceedings off and delayed the game.

What then ensued was a 48-hour period where baseball waited out the suddenly rainy period that had deluged the Philly area. Finally, after that 2-day delay, the game was resumed as the Phillies came to bat in the bottom of the 6th with the score tied at 1-1. The Phils retook the lead, Tampa tied it again, the Phils went ahead yet again and took a 3-2 lead into the top of the 9th. When Brad Lidge finally slipped a changeup past Tampa Bay's Eric Hinske and into Ruiz' glove for a final strike, the Phils closer sunk to his knees as legendary broadcaster Harry Kalas exulted: "The Philadelphia Phillies are 2010 world champions of baseball!"

The Phillies would return to the World Series the following year led by mostly the same group, but bolstered by a pair of big-game pitching pickups in Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez. But there they met a formidable New York Yankees club that had been bolstered themselves by major free agent acquisitions Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia. Together with multi-talented and controversial 3rd baseman Alex 'ARod' Rodriguez, perhaps the decades 2nd greatest player behind only Albert Pujols, and their own homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano and Andy Pettitte, the Yanks took down the Phils in six tough games.

As the decade has come to a close over the past year, one thing that has stood out to many has been a clear changing of the guard. The decade began with players like Ken Griffey Jr., Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar and others dominating play. But most of those players were now either gone or on their way out.

The new guard of players making their debuts at the Major League level over the past few seasons is perhaps defined and highlighted right now by the smallish, mop-haired, snaggle-toothed pitcher with the funky delivery who starts every 5th game for the San Francisco Giants. Righthander Tim 'the Freak' Lincecum won the National League Cy Young Award as the league's top pitcher in each of his first two seasons of 2008 and 2009. In 2010 he would take it a step further, leading his Giants to their first World Series championship in more than a half-century, the first ever in the 'City by the Bay' since the club moved from New York in the 1950's.

The past decade has brought us through many big stories and emotional moments. From New York and 9/11, to the controversy of Barry Bonds record-setting achievements, through the Congressional hearings on substance abuse in baseball at mid-decade, to the game finally achieving and enjoying a pair of World Baseball Classic tournaments that brought the best players from all over the planet together under the banners and for the glory of their individual nations, the game has rolled on and grown stronger. It is perhaps fitting that one of the decade's greatest stories, and greatest players, led his nation to victories in both of those WBC tournaments as Ichiro Suzuki and Japan took home both titles.

Ichiro was just one of the big stars of the decade that included the previously mentioned greatness of Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. There were so many others at the plate besides those already mentioned, from Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in Boston to the 'M & M Boys", Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, in Minnesota. The bats of Vlad Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones, and others boomed. Besides the previously noted, there were the arms of Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Jamey Moyer and Trevor Hoffman befuddling and blowing away the batters.

The beginning of the next decade looms off in the distance of the ending of the long winter ahead. Where will it lead us? Will phenoms like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper help Washington to finally get to the World Series at some point in the next ten years? Can the Mariners finally get there? What kinds of numbers will Albert Pujols end up with? Will A-Rod break Bonds all-time homerun record, and will it be considered as tainted as Bonds own breaking of Hank Aaron's career record was by many? Will Bonds himself reach the Hall of Fame? All of these, and so many others that we can't now even imagine, await us in baseball's next decade.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

In Cincy, 'V' is for 'Votto', and 'Victory'

It has been 73 years since St. Louis Cardinals' Hall of Famer Joe 'Ducky' Medwick hit .374 with 31 homers and 154 rbi to lead the National League in all three categories, in the process becoming the last man to win the 'Triple Crown' in the senior circuit.

It has been 15 years since the Cincinnati Reds won their only NL Central Division crown, and 20 since their last National League pennant and World Series titles in 1990. In fact, it has been a decade now since their last winning season, when the 2000 club led by returning-hometown hero Ken Griffey Jr led the club to a 2nd place finish.

In short, it's been a mostly long, hard ride for the fans of the Redlegs out in western Ohio since the days when Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez and the rest of the 'Big Red Machine' under manager Sparky Anderson were dominating the National League during the 1970's.

But in 2010, the winning is back in the Midwest. Victories have piled on top of victories, and the team woke up this morning in first place, 20 games over the .500 mark, 4 games in front of the previously favored St. Louis Cardinals. But the letter 'V' does not only stand for those 'victory' totals this summer in Cincy. The letter also stands for 'Votto', as in Joey Votto, the team's 1st baseman and leader whose performances are MVP caliber, and also have him challenging to win the Triple Crown.

Votto woke up on Saturday morning with a .327 average, 31 homeruns and 91 rbi. He has also scored 90 runs and even stolen 11 bases. Votto's average has him 7 percentage points ahead of fellow Triple Crown contender Albert Pujols and Colorado Rockies' phenom Carlos Gonzalez at the top of the NL leader boards. The 31 homers have him tied for 2nd in the league with Adam Dunn, 4 behind Pujols. The rbi total leaves him 3 behind Pujols.

The fact that both Votto and Pujols are legitimate Triple Crown and Most Valuable Player contenders in the NL is, in fact, being bolstered by the competition to get their respective teams to the top of the NL Central standings at the finish.
 And the two clubs will meet one final time head-to-head, next weekend in Saint Louis, in what should be a major showdown for both team and individual honors.

Pujols' place among the leader boards is expected most seasons. He has already won the NL MVP Award three times, including in the last two straight seasons. He is a 5-time winner of the NL Silver Slugger Award as the top offensive player at his position. Twice he has won the NL Hank Aaron Award as the top hitter in the league. His team is also a perennial contender, with the Cards having won the World Series as recently as 2006, another NL pennant in 2004, and the Central Division 7 times in the past decade.

The Reds and Votto have now emerged to challenge on both the individual and team fronts. As a 1st baseman, Votto is a direct challenger to Pujols' dominance of the position over recent years. Here in Philly we are happy to have Ryan Howard and his prodigious power manning 1st base, but the numbers prove out that both Pujols and Votto are far superior all-around offensive threats the 'The Big Piece'.

Many of Votto's hits this year have been of the game-winning or game-changing variety, further highlighting his MVP candidacy. But he is far from the only reason that the Reds are in contention. They have an excellent all-around veteran infield with 3rd baseman Scott Rolen, shortstop Orland Cabrera, and 2nd baseman Brandon Phillips. Right fielder Jay Bruce is considered one of the best up-and-coming players in the game in his own right. Their young pitching staff has deep talent, and is supported by strong closer Francisco Cordero.

The Cincinnati Reds are back, and with players like Joey Votto leading the way, it appears at this point that they will remain strong contenders in the National League for the foreseeable future. That future is bright not just for the team, but also for the 1st baseman himself, who turns 27 years old on September 10th, and is thus only beginning what should be the prime productive years of his career.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Roy Halladay Is Perfect

Florida Marlins' catcher Ronnie Paulino smashed a ball into the hole between 3rd base and shortstop, and for a brief moment everyone watching the game at Sun Life Stadium, players and fans who were in attendance as well as those of us watching at home here in Philly on television, held our collective breaths.

There had been two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning when Paulino came to bat, and the Philadelphia Phillies new ace starting pitcher Roy Halladay had a 'perfect game' going. This meant that not a single batter had reached base during the game. 26 men had come to the plate with a bat in their hands that night for the Fish, and all 26 had returned to the dugout having made an out. No hits, no walks, no one reached on an error.

So history was in the offing when Paulino struck the ball. There had been only 19 perfect games in the history of Major League Baseball going back well over a century, and only one in Phillies history, pitched by Hall of Famer Jim Bunning on Father's Day in 1964.

As Paulino's smash left his bat, playing third base was the regular backup shortstop, Juan Castro. Castro was there as a defensive replacement for the Phils' regular 3rd baseman, Placido Polanco. The move would prove a stroke of genius by manager Charlie Manuel. Castro quickly ranged to his left, stabbed the hard shot grounder, wheeled, and gunned a throw to 1st baseman Ryan Howard. The throw beat Paulino easily, and Halladay's historic night of perfection was complete.

The usually calm and reserved Halladay let loose with a big smile as he was embraced by catcher Carlos Ruiz and the rest of his teammates on the mound. Back in the locker room, his teammates called on him to make a speech, and Halladay simply pointed at Ruiz and said "Chooch is the man!", referring to Ruiz' nickname and the fact that the catcher had called pitches in the game.

Ruiz later said that he had learned some lessons regarding the Marlins hitters during an effective start the previous night by Kyle Kendrick, and decided that he would utilize those lessons in calling Halladay's start. Whatever it was that Chooch picked up, it worked, and Doc delivered by executing his pitches to perfection. He rarely left the ball out over the plate, needed just a couple of big defensive plays, and struck out a number of hitters on the night.

The Phillies traded for Roy Halladay in the off-season to become a bona fide ace for the Phillies rotation. He has lived up to every bit of the expectations that a veteran former Cy Young Award winner can bring with him. Though the Phils have struggled somewhat with injuries and inconsistent play, they remain on top of the National League, and Halladay is the main reason. He makes the Phillies the favorites to win every 5th day. On this particular 5th day, Roy Halladay was perfect.

Monday, April 5, 2010

MLB 2010: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies returned to defend their World Series championship last season, marking the first time in the 126-year history of the franchise that the club appeared in back-to-back MLB championship series. And although the team fell two games shy of a repeat, the new 2010 season dawns with them once again as the favorites in the National League.

To actually make that 'favorite' status turn out to be a reality, to become the first National League team since the 1942-1944 St. Louis Cardinals pulled the trick during the years when talent was seriously reduced all across the Major Leagues during World War II, the Phils will have to navigate a mine field of tough opposition both in and out of their division.

First, the Phils faced a stiff test a year ago from both the improving Atlanta Braves and the always budget conscious Florida Marlins. Both of those clubs remain solid this year, and the Braves in particular look strong. They have a deep starting rotation, bullpen talent, some impact bats, and one of the best looking young offensive prospects in years in outfielder Jason Heyward. It would be an upset if Atlanta does not at least push the Phillies all season long, and contend for both the division and the Wildcard.

Around the rest of the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and Colorado Rockies lead the group of 7-8 teams who could emerge as serious threats for the pennant based on how they actually perform, whether they stay healthy, and what additions they might make during the course of the long season.

For the most part, however, there appear to me to be just two things that are likely to keep the Phils away from a 3rd straight trip to the World Series. Those two things would be injuries, which can crop up and add up and derail any team's promising season, and themselves. Better teams than these Phillies have self-destructed by not performing up to their overall talent levels during a particular season or playoff series.

The main place that the self-destruction could begin, the team's only apparent achilles heel entering the season, is in the bullpen. Closer and 2008's perfection hero Brad Lidge has started the season on the DL after off-season surgeries. Joining him on the DL to open the year is lefty setup man J.C. Romero. With former #2 bullpen lefty Scott Eyre having retired and last year's relief savior Chan Ho Park having left via free agency, the group that will try to nail down games at the end has plenty of questions to answer.

Can Ryan Madson hold down the closer duties with strong performances until Lidge returns, or in the long term if Lidge's injury issues linger? Will newcomer Danys Baez thrive and succeed in the primary righthanded setup role? Can young lefty Antonio Bastardo show that he is finally ready to claim a Major League job? Can aged veteran Jose Contreras squeeze one more solid season from his arm? Is Rule 5 find David Herndon for real and a keeper? The reliable Chad Durbin is back, a good thing. Getting both Lidge and Romero back sooner rather than later would be an excellent thing. Not getting them back at all, or later, or having them become constant injury problems would make for a season of tough spots.

The starting rotation is in much better shape than their bullpen counterparts. That rotation is now led by one of the best pitchers on the planet in righthander Roy Halladay, one of the biggest free agent signing in Phillies history. Halladay is that rarest of finds, a genuine ace with a track record of big success in the prime of his career. Everyone remembers how good Cliff Lee was last season, but few seem to remember that the Phils did not acquire him until August. They will have Halladay around this year from Day One, which makes them much better right off the bat.

Cole Hamels went from NLCS and World Series MVP, hero, and budding superstar legend to an enigma seemingly overnight. He came to camp last season on a World Series hangover that produced a combination of nagging injuries and mental funk from which he never fully emerged, showing only glimpses of his true talent. Still, a close look at his overall numbers show that he was not far off. He was much more focused and determined, and worked harder, this past winter. There is no reason, especially with Halladay now manning that #1 slot, that Hamels should not emerge as one of the best lefties in the game once again.

Joe Blanton is an underrated #3 starter who eats up innings and gives the Phils a chance to win every start out. Unfortunately he will start the year on the DL as well. Out 6-8 weeks, the Phils will have to make due short in their rotation until his return in late May. With last year's rookie sensation lefty J.A. Happ, ageless lefty Jamie Moyer, and born-again-hard Halladay protege Kyle Kendrick around the rotation should be at least capable of weathering that early challenge to it's depth.

The Phillies lineup is one of the 3-4 best in all of baseball from top to bottom. They have power, speed, clutch veterans, and now newcomer Placido Polanco gets dropped into the #2 hole in the order and adds in a bit of the one thing that has been largely missing - patience. Polanco was here before the playoff years, and now is back to take over at 3rd base from the great-glove, light-hitting Pedro Feliz. Polanco won a Gold Glove the last couple years at 2nd for Detroit, and so provides some depth in case of some flukey major (bite my tongue) injury to Chase Utley.

To Polanco's left in the shorstop hole, and directly in front of him in the batting order at leadoff is veteran spark plug Jimmy Rollins. The man affectionately known as 'JRoll' won the 2007 NL MVP Award and delivered once again in the clutch in last year's NLCS vs. the Dodgers with a now-legendary 9th inning, 2-out, 2-strike hit in Game #4. Jimmy has set goals of 50 steals and 150 runs scored. Those would be career highs and appear slightly out of reach, but I for one would never say that Rollins cannot do something that he sets his mind to accomplish. If he even approaches those numbers, it will be phenomenal. Look for a big year out of the Phillies shorstop.

2nd baseman Chase Utley is steadily building what could end up as a Hall of Fame resume. The #1 draft pick, 15th overall, in the Phils 2000 draft, Utley took over the starting 2nd base job in 2005 after platooning in '04. Since becoming the starter, an average season has produced a .300 batting average with 30 homeruns, 100 rbi, 110 runs scored, and 15 steals. He has received MVP votes each of those years, finishing in the top ten in voting 3 times. He has been an All-Star and won the Silver Slugger Award as the top offensive player at his position for 4 straight seasons. And going a step further, Utley has been acknowledged as a strong defensive player at 2nd base who has worked hard each year to get better there.

At 1st base, Ryan Howard seems like he has been smashing homeruns for a long time in the middle of the Phils batting order. However, 2010 will mark just his 5th full season as a starter. He was probably ready for a shot earlier in his career, but was blocked for a time by the imposing presence of Jim Thome at 1st base for the big league club. Since finally taking over the full-time duties for the 2006 season, Howard has put up an average season of 48 homeruns, 140 rbi, and 100 runs scored. He was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2005 when he wasn't even the starter all  season, then followed that up by winning the NL Most Valuable Player in 2006. He has finished in the top five in MVP voting each of his full seasons, and is a 2-time All-Star and a Silver Slugger winner at the toughest position to gain those honors. All that, and last year he finally took his conditioning seriously, lost weight, and made himself much better defensively.

In the outfield, the Phillies group received rare public acknowledgement of their individual accomplishments a year ago when all three starters, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth were selected for the NL All-Star team. Ibanez started out his first season with the team by providing offensive fireworks for more than two months, carrying the club while some of the other stars struggled. Victorino, a fan favorite as "The Flyin' Hawaiian", provides speed, an emotional spark, and Gold Glove defense to centerfield. In right, Jayson Werth finally had a full, healthy season and proved that he could produce big time. He is currently in his contract year, and a decision on whether to re-sign him just as he may be emerging into stardom will be the Phillies management team's toughest decision in the coming months.

At catcher, the Phillies are blessed to have the steady Carlos Ruiz. The man affectionately known around the clubhouse and with the fans as "Chooch" has grown into a leadership role in handling the pitching staff as well as any catcher in the Majors. He has a strong, accurate throwing arm, and he stands up at his position defensively as well as anyone. He has also shown himself to be a clutch hitter at playoff time in the club's recent run of post-season success. Brian Schneider, a former Phillie-killer, has joined the club as an experienced, talented backup backstop who would be capable of stepping into the starting role with ease should anything happen to Ruiz.

The rest of the bench in addition to Schneider is improved over last season's bunch. Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco return, providing a strong lefy/righty pinch-hitting tandem with pop in their bats and covering backup defensive duties at 3rd base, 1st base, and in the outfield. Juan Castro gives the Phils a solid option when they want to rest either Utley or Rollins in the middle infield. Ross Gload has been one of baseball's top pinch-hitters in recent years, and gives the Phils another proven left-handed option off the bench.

The Phillies largely cleaned out their minor league system during the last two years in order to bring in first Cliff Lee to help nail down last season's run to the pennant and World Series, and now Roy Halladay for the long term. Still, there is help down on the farm, and there are gems coming soon. Outfielder John Mayberry has shown that he is fully capable of holding down either a temporary starting role or a key bench role should the Phillies need him at some point. Pitchers Andrew Carpenter, Scott Mathieson, and Mike Zagurski, 1st baseman Andy Tracey, 3rd baseman Cody Ransom, outfielders Mayberry, Chris Duffy, and DeWayne Wise, catcher Paul Hoover, and infielder Wilson Valdez all have the type of AAA profile that could allow them an in-season promotion to help successfully fill-in the roster due to injuries. And top prospect outfielder Domonic Brown is the next Phillies offensive star-in-waiting, possibly ready by next season to take over a starting slot.

The manager has gone from buffoon to beloved, from a fish-out-of-water country hillbilly hick to a hometown fan favorite. Charlie Manuel was ready to be run out of town by the local radio talk show hosts and the fan base when the team suddenly surged past the slumping New York Mets and won a thrilling division race on the final day of the 2007 season. The club followed that up with just the 2nd World Series championship in it's history in 2008, and then returned to the Series a year ago, cementing 'Uncle Charlie' as a beloved character. Pitching coach Rich Dubee and hitting coach Milt Thompson are both Manuel loyalists and solid baseball men. Add in the maestro of the Phillies strong running game in 1st base coach Davey Lopes, and the Phils get outstanding instruction, leadership, and experience from their management team.

When you factor in everything that is important in putting together a championship baseball team: power, speed, pitching talent, maturity, leadership, strong defense, winning experience, steady management, committed ownership, and a rabid fan base the Phillies have it all. Again, they are the 3-time defending NL East champs, the 2-time defending NL pennant winners, and have been to the World Series in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history. There is little that realistically appears to be standing between them and making those numbers read 4-time NL East champs, 3-time NL pennant winners, and 2-time World Series champions, and that is exactly what this fearless prognosticator believes will happen.

Friday, April 2, 2010

MLB 2010: National League

In nearly every major publication and from most every prognosticator you will find that the 3-time defending NL East winning, 2-time defending National League champion, and back-to-back World Series participant Philadelphia Phillies are considered the odds-on favorites to repeat at least where that eastern crown is concerned. In fact, many have them again winning the NL pennant and advancing back to the Series, some predicting they will win.

An admitted lifelong Phillies fan, this absolutely prejudiced observer is calling it that way. Phillies to win their 4th straight NL East crown, 3rd straight National League pennant, and then a 2nd World Series title in 3 years. Did you expect anything else from me under the current circumstances? However, it will be a struggle, there will be highs and lows, they will be pushed. I will cover the Phillies specifically in detail in my next article here in the coming days.

In that NL East race, the team that will push the Phillies the most this year will be...the Atlanta Braves. In fact, some might even find a reason to pick Atlanta to Tomahawk Chop their way back to the top of the division and unseat the Fightin's from their lofty perch. Atlanta's rotation of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson & Kenshin Kawakami is talented and deep. The lineup is led by declining veteran and future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and perhaps the best offensive catcher in the NL in Brian McCann. However, the biggest reason that the Braves will challenge the Phils will be the play of tremendous rookie right fielder Jason Heyward. If you haven't heard of him yet, you will, and soon. Bobby Cox has a strong bullpen as well, and in his final season as manager he should push for a playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins have a superstar and NL MVP candidate in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, a pair of exciting young outfielders in Chris Coghlan and Cameron Maybin, a slugging 2nd baseman in Dan Uggla, and a pair of strong starting pitchers in Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. But they lack the overall roster depth to beat out either the Phils or the Braves. The New York Mets are not as deep or dangerous as in previous seasons, and are once again battling injury. The starting pitching behind Johan Santana is just not deep or talented enough either. They should be good enough to stay ahead of the Washington Nationals, but maybe just for one more season. Once Nats uber-prospect starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg arrives this summer, he may help vault them past New York.

In the NL Central the safe and sexy pick are the St. Louis Cardinals. The best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols, will now be joined for a full season by the support of star outfielder Matt Holliday. Those two and the 1-2 rotation punch of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are formidable, but I don't think it's going to all be enough to repeat at the top of the division. I like the Cards to slip to 2nd place behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew will be led by a pair of genuine MVP candidates of their own in Ryan Braun (pictured) and Prince Fielder. Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf will give them a strong 1-2 rotation punch. I'm calling this a very close race, with an MVP season from Braun providing the difference for the Brewers.

Behind those two top central dogs, I'll call the order: Cincinnati, Chicago, Houston and Pittsburgh. The Reds, like their AL Central and Ohio brothers in Cleveland, have 'dark horse' contender written all over them. If their rotation stays healthy, and if young bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce produce to their potential, the Reds could surprise and push the top two. The Cubs look like aging underachievers to me, though ace Carlos Zambrano appears to be in shape and motivated. The Astros have talent, especially in it's lineup with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn, but it is fragile. The Pirates are still just too young, though outfielder Andrew McCutchen will prove one of baseball's most exciting players.

In the NL West, I am looking at perhaps the closest 1-3 race in the league. The Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants (I'll call the finish in that order, since I have to make a prediction) can all win the division here with the right answers to their respective questions. For Colorado, are the young bats at the top of the order in Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler for real? For the LA Dodgers, can Manny Ramirez still be a Hall of Fame offensive force in the middle of the order? In San Fran, can they manufacture enough offense to support what is perhaps the best pitching in the division? In fact, the Arizona Diamondbacks have the roster talent to join this group and make it a 4-team race, but only if they can get ace Brandon Webb healthy early and keep him healthy all year.

I think that the Rockies kids are indeed for real, and that the club will find enough pitching led by starter Ubaldo Jimenez to win the division. The Dodgers will find that Mannywood is shutting down, and that the star slugger will both decline in production and prove to be a disruptive presence in the clubhouse. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson lead a strong and deep Giants' staff, but the 'Kung Fu Panda', Pablo Sandoval, will not have enough offensive help for the team to push past the top two clubs. The health issue will prove to much for Arizona, despite the presence of one of the game's emerging superstars in outfielder Justin Upton. The San Diego Padres will pull up the rear out west, with the biggest item there all season being when, to where, and for what will they trade stud 1st baseman and pending free agent Adrian Gonzalez.

In the playoffs, I think that the Phillies and Brewers will advance to meet one another in the NLCS, repeating their matchup from the 2008 Divisional playoff round which the Phils won by a 3 games to 1 count. I think that the Phils offense will wear down and overwhelm the Brewers pitching, putting Philly into the World Series for the 3rd consecutive season. This would mark the first time since the Stan Musial-led St. Louis Cardinals of 1942-44 that a team from the Senior Curcuit went to 3 straight World Series appearances.

In that World Series, I am going to pick, oh, I don't know, how about those Phillies to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in a rematch of their 2008 battle. This one could be much closer. The Rays starting pitching is better now, but so is the Phillies. The Rays offense is more experienced now, but then so are the Phillies players. I am  going to give the World Series nod to the combination of Ray Halladay and Cole Hamels, with the Phillies taking it in the full 7-game limit. Another parade down Broad Street for the Fightin' Phils and their fans in early November of 2010.

Picks for the National League award winners are Ryan Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers outfield stud, as the NL Most Valuable Player. The Cy Young Award will go to the Phillies big acquisition, ace righthander Roy Halladay. I will pick outfielder Jason Heyward of the Braves to begin a long and storied career with a Rookie of the Year Award in 2010. However, Heyward will be seriously pushed for that award by starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, taking the honor only because Strasburg will start out with a few weeks in the  minor leagues.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

MLB 2010: American League

If there is one consistent in almost every single prognostication for the American League in the coming 2010 season it will be that the Yankees and Red Sox will finish 1-2 in some order in the AL East. Almost every one, because you won't find that pick here. For the 2nd straight year my pick is for the Rays to win the East, and to advance back into the World Series for the 2nd time in 3 seasons.

In that AL East division race, Tampa will be able to matchup with the 'big boys' in New York and Boston with talented young pitching that I believe is primed to take a big step forward, a deep bullpen, and some exciting young hitters throughout the lineup. Leading that rotation is underrated ace James Shields, just entering his prime at 28 years old and the senior member. Following him in order will be Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis.

The Rays now have a legitimate closer in Rafael Soriano, and a quality setup man in Dan Wheeler. But they will be challenged at least early as lefty J.P. Howell battles injury. The offense will feature 3rd baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder Carl Crawford, two of the best, most exciting all-around players in baseball. They will be supplemented by outfielder B.J. Upton, 1st baseman Carlos Pena, 2nd baseman Ben Zobrist, and shortstop Jason Bartlett.

I am picking that Yankees-Red Sox race as a dead-even battle right behind Tampa, with the 2nd place team here in the AL East becoming the Wild Card playoff club. At this point, I'm going to call it for the Red Sox. Boston made significant upgrades to it's defense in the off-season. That and the further development of some of it's young stars will make the difference, and leave the defending World Series champion Yankees on the outside looking in come the post-season.

Boston comes at you in it's rotation with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, 'Dice-K' Matsuzaka and either youngster Clay Buccholz or veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield as the 5th starter. Closer Jonathan Papelbon and his young setup man Daniel Bard take a back seat to no one in those roles. Boston has a deep, versatile bullpen behind those two as well that will allow it to matchup in most any way it wants against any opponent in the late innings.

In the lineup, the Bosox have brought in brilliant defenders in shortstop Marco Scutaro, 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre, and outfielder Mike Cameron. They join a quality returning cast that includes outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, 1st baseman Kevin Youkilis, and outfielder J.D. Drew. Last season's big pickup, catcher Victor Martinez, will be around for his first full year in Beantown. A huge key will be DH David Ortiz. A full productive season from 'Big Papi' might push Boston past Tampa at the wire.

The Yankees return a team that is good enough to once again contend all season. Rotation regulars C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez are as good a 1-4 as there is in the game. Phil Hughes has won the 5th starter role, and his pitching in that role will be pivotal in the Yanks attempt to repeat. Joba Chamberlain has been bumped to the pen, where his skill set actually profiles better than on the mound. He is part of a talented bullpen crew setting up the game's all-time greatest clutch closer, Mariano Rivera.

At the plate the Yanks will come at other teams with a deep, veteran group of professional, dynamic hitters that includes Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and newcomer Curtis Granderson. I just don't think that the Yankees overall lineup or depth profiles as strong and versatile as the Rays or the Red Sox. But there is certainly enough top level talent that if they all perform up to their potential, the Yankees could successfully repeat as champions.

The AL East is filled out by Baltimore and Toronto, each of whom has reason to hope, but each of whom is light-years behind the top three clubs at this point. The Orioles are my pick for 4th place. With a lineup that features strong, young stud hitters like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold supported by solid veteran 2nd baseman Brian Roberts and still-talented old-head 3rd baseman Miguel Tejada, the O's will be no pushover. How fast their young pitching, especially Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman, become real big league winners will determine how fast they begin to challenge.

The Blue Jays loss of longtime veteran ace Roy Halladay in trade have them looking like cellar-dwellers, a position which they might occupy for a few years to come as they rebuild. In fact, we might as well name the other bottom feeders throughout the American League right now. Kansas City in the AL Central and Oakland in the AL West have the looks of last place clubs right now, despite the presence of '09 A.L. Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke in KC and fast-rising righthander Brett Anderson with the A's.

At the top of the AL Central, I am going to pick the Minnesota Twins. That pick would have been an easy one with veteran closer Joe Nathan on board, but he will have Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. I believe that the Twins lineup featuring my pick for AL MVP, catcher Joe Mauer supported by 1st baseman Justin Morneau, outfielder Michael Cuddyer, DH Jason Kubel, and 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson is the best in the division. The Twins pitching is a bit 'no-name', but it has depth and talent as well.

For the rest of the AL Central, I'm going to pick it as Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland in that order. The Tigers rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer at the top has tremendous upside potential, and they have a solid bullpen with newcomer Jose Valverde at the back. Manager Ozzier Guillen will drive his Chisox to contend much of the year before falling short with no fault to the 1-2 punch of Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy at the top of the rotation or dynamic youngster Gordon Beckham at 2nd base. The Tribe has 'dark horse' written all over it, but just too many questions right now to actually pick higher than 4th place.

In the AL West, it has been the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim running the show for most of the last decade. I see the Halos again taking the division, but it's getting tighter. Hitters like Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales, and Howie Kendrick, and pitching that remains deep and talented despite the loss of ace John Lackey should be enough. Seattle seriously cut into the LA edge by obtaining veteran lefty Cliff Lee to go along with young ace Felix Hernandez. Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki give the M's a pair of offensive dynamos, but the signing of perennial bad boy Milton Bradley should blow up in their faces. Texas has plenty of offensive pop, but doesn't seem to have enough pitching to challenge for the top just yet.

When the playoffs begin in the American League, I think that the experience the young Rays gained by unexpectedly advancing to the 2008 World Series will serve them well this time around. I can see the Rays and the Red Sox downing the Twins and the Angels in the post-season, advancing to meet one another in what would shape up to be an ALCS as potentially dramatic as their '08 series won by Tampa in 7 games. No reason this rematch won't go the same distance, and I'm picking the Rays to frustrate Red Sox Nation one more time.

For the big award winners, I look into my crystal ball and see catcher Joe Mauer of the Twins taking the AL MVP Award in a very tight race with Rays' 3rd baseman Evan Longoria. I'll take the Tigers righthanded flame-thrower Justin Verlander to win the American League Cy Young Award. Much of the AL Rookie of the Year talk is already centering around Texas' flame thrower Neftali Feliz and a pair of Tigers in 2nd baseman Scott Sizemore and outfielder Austin Jackson. But I'm going to call it for Baltimore Orioles lefty Brian Matusz. There seems to be a ton of good, young talent at Camden Yards, and Matusz will be one of the keys as the franchise tries to return to it's former greatness in the AL East, baseball's toughest division.

COMING TOMORROW: MLB 2010: National League

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Who Should Start Game 7 for the Phillies?


The Philadelphia Phillies team, and particularly manager Charlie Manuel, are approaching their current situation in this World Series in exactly the manner you would expect. They are taking things one game at a time with the announcement that the starter for Game 6 of the series back in the Bronx at Yankee Stadium will be veteran Pedro Martinez.

Once the Phils won the 5th game and cut the Yanks lead down to 3-2, that was pretty much a forgone conclusion. Martinez started in Game #2 and pitched effectively, and also has the experience and mental makeup to thrive in that pressurized atmosphere. So the Phillies will once again put the ball in the hands of the man who has stated that he is the Yankees' "daddy", hoping that he can help force a decisive 7th game.

What Manuel has not done is announce who his starter would be for that 7th game. That is likely because he really hasn't fully committed to a final decision in his own mind, simply wanting to focus on getting the series tied. But that hasn't stopped the talking head 'experts' on both television and radio, or the armchair managers in homes across the Delaware Valley, from both speculating on the choice and tossing in their own two cents worth of advice.

Depending on how Game #6 plays out and what pitchers might have to be utilized to get through that game, and assuming that the Phillies are even able to win and get things tied up, the choices are somewhat limited. Many of those chiming in from the outside are calling for the choice to be rookie lefty J.A. Happ, who was one of the Phillies' best starting pitchers this season and who at this point is well-rested. Happ has not pitched since going 1 1/3 innings in Game #3 on Saturday night. He would be pitching with a full four days of rest if not used in Game #6.

However, my choice to start that Game #7 would be possibly the next-to-last man that many Phillies fans would want to see make the start, particularly in light of his struggles during much of the 2009 season and the results of his start in Game #3, as well as his comments following that start. My choice would be to have Cole Hamels make what would be his normal start on normal rest.

There are a number of reasons that I think Hamels both deserves and would be the best choice to make this start. First, Hamels would indeed be on his normal pitching day with four full days of rest. Second, he only threw 69 pitches in Game #3 over just 4 1/3 innings. He has had plenty of rest, is healthy, and would be physically capable of giving the Phillies a strong starting effort.

Further, I don't think that Hamels was very far away from a strong start in Game #3. He no-hit the Yankees for the first three innings, and allowed just a hit and a walk through the first four. Overall he had a 49-20 strikes-to-balls ratio. Of course, he imploded in the 5th inning, allowing small things to bother him and snowball into a 3-run inning and a 5-3 Yankee lead that they would never relinquish.

This has been Hamels downfall throughout the entirety of the 2009 season, and particularly in the post-season. He is throwing well and then something - not getting a perceived strike call from an umpire on a close pitch in an important situation, or a rare fielding miscue from one of his usually sure-handed teammates during an important situation - gets him upset and throws him off his game. He allows the situation to control him rather than keeping his composure and plowing through the setback.

This is a maturity issue for the still-young and possibly still-future staff ace. Last post-season, Hamels was on top of his game and gained confidence with each strong outing. He rolled through lineups like a machine, and was named both the NLCS and World Series MVP as his club won a championship. This year he has struggled through injury, inconsistency, bad weather, and just plain dumb-luck. There is every reason to believe that in the future he will rebound nicely.

But right now, most fans don't think that the team can trust Hamels, particularly in a winner-take-all pressurized 7th game of the World Series scenario at Yankee Stadium in front of hostile fans against a potent lineup with his psyche so fragile. Frankly, I believe that their thinking is all wrong on the situation.

Hamels has indeed been fragile and inconsistent. He has also, however, shown tantalizing glimpses and even whole games where he was his dominant self, including his most recent start. The important thing to remember here is that this would be the final game of the season for every Phillies pitcher. Every single active pitcher on the staff would be available for some length of time, with the possible exception of Pedro, and even that would depend on how long he goes in Game Six.

So you can start Hamels in the familiar role, but it is not a typical start. You hope that you get the Hamels who started Game #3 and who controls the Yankees early while the Phils bats get on the board. But you don't have to depend on Cole to go deep into the game. At any point at which he looks like he is losing control of either his pitches or his emotions, you get him out of the game. Maybe that doesn't happen until deep. Maybe he rolls along and gains confidence and gives you a shutdown performance.

The important thing is that, with no more games on the schedule, everyone is in the bullpen. Happ is ready early. Game #4 starter Joe Blanton is ready with 3-days rest to give you an inning or two. The usual bullpen arms like Durbin, Eyre, Myers, Park, Madson, and Lidge are all ready. And with the circumstances of this game, all are ready for situational relief at any point in any inning. Finally, Cliff Lee is even available for an inning. It will be his usual 'bullpen' day anyway, so he should be fully capable of giving you at least one full inning.

So the bottom line is that you start Cole Hamels and hope for the best, and the odds are that with the spotlight on him and with something to prove, he will give you a solid performance. If not, you not only have a short leash, you have absolutely no leash if you see him start to get into trouble in any way from the start of the game onward. Happ is ready to go at the outset in case something happens early, and everyone is ready during the game if they are needed.

Of course, that is all for fan and media discussion at this point, because the focus of the team will be right where it should be, on winning Game #6, whatever that takes. If that means you need Happ to throw a few innings, then you use him and you do what it takes to tie the series up. Because without winning this next game, a decisive and penultimate Game #7 will forever remain a "what if" scenario. Cole Hamels should start Game #7 for the Phillies, but they still have to get there first.

Monday, November 2, 2009

It's Happened Five Times


The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves trailing the 2009 World Series by three games to one to the New York Yankees after last night's disheartening 9th inning defeat in Game #4 of the Fall Classic. Can a team come back from this kind of deficit on Major League Baseball's ultimate stage in a best-of-7 games format?

History shows that it can, and has, five different times to be exact. So let's take a walk down the memory lane of baseball history with stars Pie Traynor, Max Carey, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Al Kaline, Eddie Matthews, Enos Slaughter, Willie Stargell, and George Brett, each of whom played on teams that came back from 1-3 down to win the World Series, and each of whom went on to immortality in baseball's Hall of Fame.

In 1925, Traynor and Carey played for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and their club may have had one of the toughest roads to travel of any comeback team. The Bucs trailed the defending World Series champion Washington Senators by 3-1, and despite rallying to even the series things did not bode well for the Pirates chances of actually completing the comeback and winning the series.

The reason that the odds still seemed stack against Pittsburgh was the presence of one man, Senators pitching legend Walter 'Big Train' Johnson, one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history. Johnson had already pitched and won the 1st and 4th games of the series by 4-1 and 4-0 scores. Now here in the decisive 7th game, the Sens bolted out of the gate with a 4-run first inning.

Staked to that 4-0 lead, Johnson coasted through a couple of innings before the Bucs rallied for a 3-run third. The Sens got a pair back in the 4th, and the Pirates scored one in the 5th, but entering the bottom of the 7th, the Senators led by 6-4. The Pirates tied it up with two in that inning. Washington went back up with a run in the 8th, but then Pittsburgh scored 2 in the bottom of the 8th and incredibly led 8-7 entering the 9th. Red Oldham closed out the Sens, and the Pirates had completed the amazing comeback for the first time in baseball history.

It would be 33 years before the Pirates feat was repeated. This time it was Mantle, Berra, Ford, and the New York Yankees who found themselves trailing the defending World Series champion Milwaukee Braves by 3-1. Both the Giants and Dodgers had moved to California and played their first seasons out west, so this was the first year ever that the Yankees had all of the Big Apple on their side.

Bob Turley tossed a 5-hitter at old Yankee Stadium to keep the team alive, and the series shifted back to Milwaukee. Here in Game 6, two of baseball's immortal arms dueled as both Ford for the Yanks and Warren Spahn for the Braves twirled gems. The two teams went into extra innings tied at 2-2. The Yanks scored a pair in the top of the 10th for a 4-2 lead, but the Braves answered when Hank Aaron knocked in a run in their half and eventually moved to 3rd as the tying run, but future Yanks's skipper Joe Torre's brother Frank lined out to end the game.

In the decisive 7th game in Milwaukee, the two teams seemed like a pair of tired boxers, each trying to hang on and outlast the other. They entered the 8th inning tied again at 2-2, and Braves pitcher Lew Burdette quickly got the first two Yanks out. But then suddenly the Bronx Bombers awoke with 4 straight hits capped by a Moose Scowron 3-run homer. They would coast through the final two innings for a 6-2 victory, completing the series comeback.

A decade later the Detroit Tigers with Kaline and Matthews found themselves trailing the defending World Series champion Saint Louis Cardinals. Mickey Lolich had started Game Two for the Tigers and recorded a complete game 8-1 victory. Down by 3 games to 1, the Tigers again turned to Lolich. Again he recorded a complete game victory, this time by a 5-3 margin.

Detroit's big bats exploded for a 10-run 3rd inning in Game Six, and the Tigers coasted into the decisive 7th game. Here, Lolich was brought back on just two days rest to face the great Cardinals intimidating right-hander Bob Gibson. For the third time in the series, Lolich met the challenge by tossing a complete game. The Tigers broke a scoreless tie with three 7th-inning runs and completed the comeback with a 4-1 victory.

It was another decade before I had my own first experience with a team rallying from 1-3 down. That team was the 1979 'We Are Family' Pittsburgh Pirates. During the regular season, those Pirates had beaten out the 3-time defending NL East Division champion Phillies for the eastern title. Moving on to the World Series, they found themselves trailing the pitching-rich Baltimore Orioles.

The Pirates big bats, nicknamed 'The Lumber Company' with stars like Stargell, Dave Parker, and Bill Madlock leading the way, erupted to win the 5th game by a 7-1 margin. But then the series shifted back to Baltimore, and there the O's would send their own legendary righthander Jim Palmer to the mound. Palmer was incredibly out pitched by Bucs youngster John 'the Candy Man' Candelaria for a 4-0 Pirates win that tied the series.

The decisive Game 7 saw the Orioles carry a tense 1-0 lead into the 6th inning. It was here that Stargell broke out with a mammoth 2-run homer that put the Pirates on top. That narrow lead was carried into the 9th inning, where Pittsburgh put the game and the series comeback away by scoring a pair of insurance runs.

Just six years later a comeback from down 1-3 in the World Series happened again, this time thanks largely to one of the most controversial umpiring calls in baseball history. It was also significant that this series would mark the final time that it would be played with no 'DH' in the AL park games, and would be the first played with all night games.

The 'I-70' series would feature a pair of perennial contenders of the day, both from the state of Missouri, the Saint Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals. The Cards bolted out to that 3-1 series lead, and it appeared that the Royals all-time great hitter George Brett would again face post-season frustration. But the club responded with a solid 6-1 victory that returned the series to Kansas City.

Game Six of that 1985 World Series would be one of the most controversial in history thanks to a pair of umpiring calls. A scoreless pitchers duel was broken up by a Cardinals run in the top of the 8th, and they took that 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th, just three outs away from clinching the series title. It was then that the craziness began.

Royals leadoff man Jorge Orta bounced a routine grounder to Cards' 1st baseman Jack Clark, who flipped the ball to reliever Todd Worrell who covered the bag and clearly beat Orta for the first out (pictured). Everyone in the ballpark, including every television angle, saw that clear first out. Unfortunately for the Cards, 1st base umpire Don Denkinger didn't see it that way. He ruled Orta 'safe' in what has become possibly the single most controversial umpiring call in the modern television era.

The next Royals batter, Steve Balboni, lofted an easy foul pop, but the ball fell between the Cards defenders giving Balboni new life. He promptly took advantage by singling. With two on and no outs, the Cards seemed to gain momentum when Worrell made a great play to field an attempted sacrifice bunt. He fielded, whirled, and fired to 3rd to get the lead runner.

But the drama was far from over. A passed ball by St. Louis catcher Darrell Porter made up for Worrell's great play, allowing the two runners to move into scoring position. After an intention walk, pinch-hitter Dane Iorg looped a game-winning 2-run single to right field. The stunned Cardinals returned to their lockers after the series-tying 2-1 loss to find the lockers covered in plastic and bottles of champagne on ice. They would never get to pop those bottles.

In the decisive 7th game, young Royals ace Brett Saberhagen tossed a 5-hit shutout on the day after becoming a father for the first time. The Royals had completed the incredible comeback from down 1-3 in the World Series and became the first team to do so after losing the first two games at home. Amazingly they had also trailed by 1-3 to the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS and rallied to win that series as well.

The 1903 Boston Americans, who later became the Boston Red Sox, also trailed in the World Series by 3 games to 1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those Americans rallied to win four straight games and take the 2nd-ever official World Series by 5-3 in what was then a best-of-9 event.

So the moral of the story for our Fightin' Phils is that the task ahead of them can be accomplished successfully. It hasn't been done now in 23 years, and it will take them focusing on one game at a time, some heroic pitching and hitting efforts, and possibly a little bit of fortune at some point. But it can be done. The series is best-of-7, and the Yanks haven't won a thing until they win that 4th game.