MLB 2011: Philadelphia Phillies

Charlie Manuel, new contract in hand, skippers the N.L. favorites

Whatever you may want to call the Phillies starting pitching rotation, and there have been at least a half dozen nicknames tossed around town over the last few months, it will be those arms that make or break this particular version of the Fightin' Phils as they shoot for a 4th straight N.L. East division title. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels make for the best starting pitching rotation that baseball has seen for years, perhaps ever.

Halladay will turn 34 years old in mid-May, and he is clearly the Ace among Aces. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner last year in his first season with the Phils (it was his 2nd career Cy Young), the man known as 'Doc' tossed a perfect game last season, and then pitched a no-hitter to open the playoffs. He has been an all-star in 7 of the past 9 seasons. He has logged more than 220 innings pitched for the past 5 straight seasons.

When Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees tens-of-millions in order to return to a place that he claimed to love, he immediately renewed what was becoming a passionate affair with Phillies fans over the last few months of the 2009 season. After leading that Phils club to the World Series, Lee moved to Texas and led that club to it's first-ever Series appearance last year. He has been comfortably above the 200 innings pitched mark the past 3 seasons, and won the 2008 A.L. Cy Young Award. He won't run 33 until Labor Day weekend.

Roy Oswalt turns 34 a day before Lee turns 33, and would be the lead Ace on almost any other team in the Majors. Oswalt has been over the 200 innings pitched in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and was the 2005 NLCS MVP when he led the Astros into that franchise' only-ever World Series appearance. Cole Hamels is the kid of the group at 27 years of age, and is the only career-long member of the franchise. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP, Hamels has been over the 180 innings pitched mark for the last 4 straight years, and may be in line for a dominating season pitching out of the #4 slot in the rotation.

Put those four arms at the front of any team in baseball, and you have a contender. But that's not all the Phillies have at their disposal on the mound. There is the current 5th starter, Joe Blanton, who is a legitimate #3 for most teams and solid #3-4 on any contending club. The 30-year old righty has been over the 170 inning mark in every single full season that he has pitched. 26-year old Kyle Kendrick pitched over 180 innings last year. Clearly the Phils have more than enviable depth that not only would serve them well throughout a long season, but it also can make for valuable trade bait should any holes develop in the everyday lineup or bullpen.

That everyday lineup has previously been the Phillies calling card. The booming bats and lightening legs combination in the batting order of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and supporting players such as Pat Burrell, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and others led the Fightin's to their early successes in winning the 2007 division title and the 2008 World Series. Longtime cornerstones Burrell and Werth are gone now (Pat the Bat having won another World Series last year with the Giants) and both injuries and age are creeping up on some of the rest.

Let's start out with the apparently healthy guys. Ryan Howard is believed to have had a down year last season. But the 31-year old slugging 1st baseman bashed 31 homers and drove in 108 runs despite missing nearly a month with an injury. In his prime, healthy, and in shape, Howard should be primed for another big 35-40 homerun season out of the cleanup slot. At 30 years old, the dynamic Shane Victorino has now won 3 straight NL Gold Gloves in centerfield, and he was 3rd in the league last year in both triples and stolen bases. Left fielder Raul Ibanez will turn 39-years old in early June, and is likely beginning his final season in Philly. He is a supporting bat now, still fully capable of a .270-20 homer-80 rbi season. Carlos Ruiz is the catcher, and one of the best in the game at both handling a pitching staff and in his catch-and-throw skills. He is also a tremendous clutch hitter.

The rest of the bats may make or break the entire Phillies season. At the start of spring training it was expected that top prospect phenom Domonic Brown would battle veteran Ben Francisco to replace the productive Werth in right field. But Brown broke the hamate bone in his hand early in camp, and Francisco had a strong spring to apparently nail down the job, at least to start the season. His ability to be productive in his first real chance as a starting regular in the Majors will be one key, as will Brown's return from injury by mid-summer. 3rd baseman Placido Polanco is now 35-years old and coming off a solid season in which he was limited by an elbow injury. He has been slow this spring to recover fully, but should be healthy and the Phils should be able to expect a little more than last year's 6 homers and 52 rbi.

The biggest questions and answers in the Phillies lineup concern the mega-talented Keystone combo of 2nd baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins. Both players turned 32 years old this winter, missed major chunks of the 2010 season with injury problems, and are going in completely opposite directions this spring. For JRoll it appears to be a year of recovery and a return to being the dynamic, driving force at the top of the team's batting order. For Utley, it's more injury concerns, this time a chronic, cranky right knee that has just not responded thus far to simple rest. Chase has not played in a game during spring training, will start the year on the DL, and is likely out at least until May.

The Phillies can likely get by with Utley out even for a couple of months. As long as Rollins, Howard, Ibanez, Polanco, Victorino, Francisco and Ruiz remain healthy, the lineup will have plenty enough offensive strength to compliment the outstanding starting pitching. 2nd base will likely be professionally manned for defensive purposes by Wilson Valdez, who was excellent spelling Utley, Rollins and Polanco last season during their various injuries. Veteran Luis Castillo has been brought in at the end of spring for a quick look-see, but must seriously impress to stick. The bench has talent and experience in Ross Gload, Brian Schneider and John Mayberry. Either Michael Martinez or Brian Bocock are also likely to help as depth.

Besides the big losses of Utley and Brown, the bullpen is where the 3rd big loss has developed. Closer Brad Lidge is now scheduled to begin the season on the DL for the 3rd time in his 4 seasons with the Phillies. The man who was "Lights Out" and perfect for the '08 World Series champs collapsed in '09, but then rebounded nicely last year. Until he is ready to go, the end of games will likely fall to either perennial back-end guy Ryan Madson or wily veteran Jose Contreras. Veteran lefty J.C. Romero is also back. The rest of the pen will come from some combination of righties Danys Baez and Scott Mathieson, and lefties Antonio Bastardo and Mike Zagurski. All may be needed at one time or another to get the club through, though with the Big Four starters all burning up major innings totals, that will alleviate a need for middle-innings relief most nights.

Fortunately for the Philadelphia Phillies, they are being guided by one of the most professional players managers in the history of the game in Charlie Manuel. The man who has gone from a talk-show joke to the beloved "Uncle Charlie" thanks to his success was rewarded this off-season with a contract extension. Manuel's calm hand and down-home style guided the team through last year's injury debacle, and he is the perfect man at the helm of this ship to guide it through almost any type of storm. He is likely to ride the big horses in his rotation and whatever regulars in the lineup are healthy as far as they will take him, which should be pretty far once again.

In my previous two MLB predictions articles here, I tipped my hand that I was predicting the Phillies to win their 5th straight N.L. East crown, their 3rd National League pennant in 4 seasons, and then lose a dramatic and exciting World Series to the Boston Red Sox. The Fightin' Phils could just as easily win that Series if all of their starting pitchers are healthy and clicking come October. However, the one big thing that could keep the team from even meeting that ultimate goal is injuries. The fans who will once again sellout every date at Citizens Bank Park have to hope that the Utley, Lidge and Brown situations don't end up becoming a harbinger of things to come.

Phillies Are Now Slump Proof

Throughout the stretch run of the 2010 season and again in at least both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, given reasonable health, the Philadelphia Phillies will remain a contending baseball team. They will remain so because their trade deadline acquisition of right-handed starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has now made them virtually slump-proof.

Every team will go through slumps during the course of a 6-month long, 162-game season. The slumps will come because the team doesn't hit collectively on a consistent basis. They come because injuries hit, sometimes as with this year's Phillies to multiple key players at the same time. They come because there is simply not enough pitching, and that bad pitching gets beat up by good professional hitters.

The one thing that can make a team 'slump-proof', or much more unlikely and infrequently than other teams to a slump or multiple slumps during a long season, is the presence of consistently strong starting pitching. The Phillies now run three true ace starting pitchers at other teams: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt. The odds that all three will lose their respective turn through the rotation are long. The odds that will happen twice in a row are even longer.

Most teams want to have what is known as an 'ace', or a 'stopper'. A true 'ace' is a top-of-the-line starting pitcher, one of the perhaps twenty best starters in the entire game.
The nickname of 'stopper' comes from the fact that when a team does enter into a slump and loses 2-3-4 games in a row, the 'stopper' will usually take the hill, pitch a gem, shut the opposition down, and stop the losing skid before it gets too long.

Keeping slumps from getting lengthy increases the odds over time that your club will stay in contention. What the Phillies now have with their 'Big Three' are three aces, three stoppers. This not only decreases the odds of a slump, it also increases the odds of the Phillies win more often than not. If the 'Big Three' win most of their starts that means the Fightins are winning at least 3 of every 5 games most of the time.

Winning 3 out of 5 means that you go 3-2, and do that over 150 games and your record is 90-60 with a dozen left to play. That is going to be enough to get you into the playoffs the vast majority of seasons, especially when you consider that your 4th and 5th starters, in the Phillies case that would be Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick, are going to win a few themselves.

Last night, Halladay took the hill in New York against the Mets. The Phillies by any measure have slumped in the Big Apple this season. They had not yet scored there this season, and had wasted a gem by Hamels the night before in a 1-0 loss. They needed Halladay to be what he was, an ace. Halladay shutout the Mets over 8 strong innings and was followed by a Ryan Madson tight-rope walk in the 9th for a 4-0 win. Combined with a loss by Atlanta, the Phils have now moved back within 2 games of the Braves in the NL east standings.

So far in the 2010 season, Halladay has fashioned a 15-8 record with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts in 193 innings pitched. Oswalt and Hamels records are not as good, but Oswalt with mostly Houston and Hamels here in Philly have been two of the least-supported pitchers in the game. Oswalt has a 3.34 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 134 strikeouts in 148 innings. Hamels has a 3.33 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, and 157 batters over 154 innings.

Of Halladay's 25 starts, 19 have been what are known as 'Quality' starts, meaning he has pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer earned runs. It is the ultimate sign of at least keeping your team competitively in the game. Hamels figure is 14 of 24 starts, Oswalt is at 17 of 23 starts. Between the three of them total, that means 50 of their 72 starts have been quality enough to give their team a better than average chance of winning. In many cases, those starts have actually been better than the minimum 6 innings and 3 earned runs allowed, they have been truly dominant.

This is what Atlanta will be up against as they try to hold off the Phils for the rest of August and through September into early October. The Phils will keep the pressure on as they run out quality starters for most every game the rest of the way. Atlanta has a good staff too with Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. But Jurrjens and Hanson don't have the pennant race pedigree of the Phils' three aces.

And while the Phillies are about to get the two biggest veteran bats back into their lineup in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the Braves have lost their lineup's biggest veteran leader in Chipper Jones for the rest of the season. Barring injuries to any of the 'Big Three' and with reasonable results from Blanton and Kendrick, the Phillies are now slump-proof. With control of their contracts for at least the next couple seasons, the Phillies should remain contenders for the foreseeable future as well.

Hamels Frustrating Season Continues

We all know that good pitching stops good hitting most of the time, and that games start to get tighter and more tense as pennant races begin to heat up in mid-August and on into September. But three teams battling in a pennant race (well, at least two really are) all playing a 1-0 game on the same night?

Here in Philly we all witnessed the Fightin's latest frustrations at the hands of a knuckleballer. This time it was Mets righty R.A. Dickey tossing a 1-hitter, of all things. And the one hit was a simple flare that dropped in off the bat of pitcher Cole Hamels. Meanwhile the Braves and Mets were both winning 1-0 games on the same night, the Atlanta win opening up a 3-game lead for them in the division race.

The Phils are playing a bit shorthanded still with both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out of the lineup. But no hits from anyone in the lineup against a guy who throws most of his pitches at maybe 75mph? You can't smartly adjust your approach for one game in a known situation like that, especially when it's already happened to you multiple times in 2010?

A couple of months ago my wife and I had the misfortune of watching the Phils get similarly shut down by the Red Sox extremely hittable veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in person at Citizens Bank Park. I remember clearly turning to her around the 3rd inning after she said "They better start hitting soon" and telling her something to the effect of "They'll have 7-8 runs at least before this game is over." The joke was on me.


Last night, the joke was on Hamels - again. He has been simply masterful for the better part of this season, and yet sits here in mid-August with a 7-9 record. The frustration began on April 18th when Hamels allowed just 7 hits and no walks while striking out 8 over 8 strong innings vs. the Marlins, only to take a loss. An 8-inning no decision on May 4th vs. the Cardinals, an 8-inning 3-hitter vs. the Padres on June 7th, 7-inning 5-hitters vs. the Twins on June 19th and Pirates on July 1st.

Perhaps the worst for Hamels was an 8-inning 1-hitter vs. Saint Louis on July 22nd. So far in August, Hamels has now made three starts. He has allowed just 17 hits and 2 walks across 22 strong innings while striking out 29 batters. For all that excellent work, his win-loss record in those games is now 0-2.

By any reasonable and fair measure, Hamels could very easily have a record somewhere in the 18-4 neighborhood, which would clearly leave him as a leading Cy Young candidate. His season line includes a 3.33 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, a 157-48 K-BB ratio, and fewer hits than innings pitched. He has been dominant. That he is not contending for his first Cy Young is the fault of the Phillies hitters.

To the absolute credit of the 26-year old lefty, Hamels has grown up. He has not allowed the continual frustrations of the offense to affect him. In the past, any signs of negativity clearly got to the emotional Hamels. He would roll his eyes, stalk around the mound, slam down the resin bag, look Heavenward for answers. This year, no matter the circumstances, he has simply taken the ball and fired.

The maturation of Cole Hamels is something that should benefit the Phillies in September, as should the support of talented veterans Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt joining him this year at the top of the rotation. The return of Howard and Utley will hopefully help the offense begin to get him the results that his pitching has deserved. For today, however, it's another frustrating morning for the talented young lefty and his 2-time defending pennant winning ballclub.

Look Out Braves, Phillies Gettin' Healthy

The Phillies activated Shane 'the Flyin Hawaiian' Victorino today from the 15-day DL, optioning lefty reliever Antonio Bastardo back to AAA Lehigh Valley. It's a good news-bad news deal for the Phils, who really could use that 2nd lefty out of the pen to complement J.C. Romero. Bastardo has done well in his opportunities, has a nice arm, and will undoubtedly be back no later than September 1st for the stretch run. His demotion is the bad news.

The good news is that Victorino is back. He will be ready to go tonight vs. the Dodgers, though it is unclear as to whether Charlie Manuel will have him back in the starting lineup right away. I can't see why he wouldn't be manning centerfield and hitting either leadoff or in the #6 slot, however, because he proved in a pair of pretty strong rehab outings the last two nights that he was just fine.

Shane's return to the club continues the Phillies' return to overall health. Primary setup reliever Ryan Madson returned in early July after missing two months of the season. Starting shortstop Jimmy Rollins returned in mid-June and is still working his way back to full health after missing nearly two months worth of the season. Starting 3rd baseman Placido Polanco returned in mid-July after missing over three weeks, and starting catcher Carlos Ruiz returned in mid-July after missing nearly a month.

With the return of Victorino and his 15 homers and 20 steals production to the lineup, the Phillies have just two more big pieces left before they can call themselves truly, fully healthy. Those two missing pieces may be the two biggest pieces, and when they return it will be akin to the club signing two major free agents and adding them to the lineup.

Starting 1st baseman and cleanup hitter Ryan Howard has missed the last ten days with a sprained ankle, and he will likely be out another week. Starting 2nd baseman and #3-hole hitter Chase Utley has missed a month and a half, and was just cleared to begin hitting again. He is due to return in about two weeks.

Somehow through all of these injuries (none of this has even mentioned the loss for the season, possibly his career, of veteran lefty Jamie Moyer) the Phillies have managed to fight back into the East Division race and the NL Wildcard race. The club currently stands just 2 1/2 games back of the Braves in the division, and Atlanta is just now learning that it has lost veteran 3rd baseman and leader Chipper Jones for the season due to injury.

With the trade deadline acquisition of righthander Roy Oswalt from Houston, the Phillies rotation big three of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Oswalt should make them virtually slump-proof for the rest of the season, no matter what the offense does. But that offense should now begin to get significantly better with the return of the starting lineup. Not only will that everyday lineup be better, but the bench will then be deeper and even more ready with everyone having received increased playing time.

It looks like the Atlanta Braves and the rest of the National League are going to have a healthy and confident defending champion stomping around in September. The fans who have continued to fill Citizens Bank Park all summer long and kept the carnival atmosphere around the team going strong through the dog days should finally be rewarded as the season rolls into it's most exciting final few weeks.

Happy Halladay

Just six weeks have passed since the New York Yankees extended their baseball dynasty with a 27th World Series championship by dethroning our own Phillies in six games. With the change from fall to winter have also come changes to the Fightin' Phils roster.

In the last few weeks, and as the Christmas holiday fast approaches, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and his management team have shown that they are not at all satisfied having won the 2008 title and nearly won a second.

Early this week the Phillies successfully concluded what was a 4-month pursuit of the acknowledged top pitcher in baseball when they completed a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays that brought Roy Halladay to town.

The cost for Halladay was significant. He gets a 3-year deal that likely flips to 4 years at a salary of about $20 million per year. The cost also includes the package of prospects sent to the Jays led by pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor. Both are considered future major league regulars by most baseball observers, with Drabek a potential future rotation ace.

Also dealt to Toronto was catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, meaning that the Phils have now dealt away their top two catching prospects in the last few months. The other was Lou Marson, sent away to Cleveland back at the 2009 trade deadline as part of the Cliff Lee deal which also included pitching prospects Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp.

Perhaps the one annoying part of the deal for some Phillies fans was the linked trade of Lee to Seattle in exchange for prospects. Some of the fan base thought the Phils could have kept both Halladay and Lee, giving them one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball next year with Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ.

However, Amaro knows his business. With the boatload of prospects lost by the Phillies minor league system in the two deals with Cleveland and Toronto over the past few months, that system was seriously depleted of top level talent. When Seattle was willing to part with a former #1 draft pick and highly regarded prospect arm in Phillipe Aumont, the Phils jumped to send Lee back to the American League.

Looking at the overall totality of the deals, the Phils got 3+ strong pitching months from Lee, performances without which the team likely doesn't return to the World Series, all for marginal or far-off prospects from Cleveland. Then they basically recouped the talent level on those prospects in flipping Lee to Seattle this week.

While the club theoretically could have kept both Halladay and Lee for this coming year, there was little likelihood that they could have met Lee's salary demands beyond 2010. So they jumped on a deal being offered right now that included strong prospects coming back to them.

Just yesterday the Phillies announced that they were excercising their 2011 contract option on shortstop and team leader Jimmy Rollins. This means that the club has contracts in place with 7 of their 8 position players through that season at least, with only Jayson Werth likely to test the free agent waters after the coming season.

The salary certainty with Halladay as an ace now in place, the Phillies can turn their attention to decisions and negotiations involving Werth next year and players like Rollins, Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson and others in the following year. The big Halladay deal was not the only move that the Phillies have made to improve this off-season.

Another key for management was rebuilding the team's bench, which seemed to become exposed as a bit of a liability in the post-season. To that end the club signed veteran Phillie-killer Brian Schneider to be the backup catcher, Juan Castro as a slick-fielding defensive infielder, and Ross Gload as a veteran pinch-hitter. Along with returnee Greg Dobbs, they will make up the majority of the Phils bench in the coming season.

Finally, the Phils have replaced the slick-fielding but offensively inconsistent and one-dimensional Pedro Feliz with returning veteran Placido Polanco at third base. There are not many better glovemen at the hot corner than Feliz, but Polanco is a vast improvement as a hitter who should bring greater flexibility and patience to a batting order that can use both at times. Although he won a Gold Glove as a 2nd baseman, he has the experience and athleticism to succeed at 3rd.

Amaro still has a little bit of work to do in finalizing the shape of the 2010 bullpen. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Chad Durbin should continue to have prime roles there. The team will have decisions to make on possibly adding or bringing back 2-3 other bullpen arms. Veteran Jamey Moyer will likely battle young Kyle Kendrick for the 5th starter role.

Phillies fans can now relax and enjoy a team in both 2010 and 2011 that will include Halladay fronting a rotation with Hamels and J.A. Happ both years, and with a lineup including Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz both years. All the while, prospects will develop and players will come and go around them, but health-allowing, the team will be a contender both years.

With back to back World Series appearances, one world championship in the bank already, three consecutive N.L. East titles, one of the most beautiful ballparks in the game, and a mostly set and talented lineup and rotation, the Phillies and their fans can truly sit back now and enjoy a happy holiday season with a happy Halladay on hand. Merry Christmas, Phillies fans!

JRollin' Into the Playoffs

The 2007 National League Most Valuable Player had certainly not played up to that standard during the 2008 campaign. Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies multi-talented shortstop and that '07 MVP struggled with the bat through the majority of the first five months of the season. His numbers were nowhere near those of that magical season which he fashioned just a year ago. In 2007, Rollins led the Phils to their first division championship in 14 years with his .296 batting average, 30 homeruns, 94 rbi, 139 runs, 41 steals. This came on the heels of a 2006 year in which he had 25 homers, 83 rbi, 127 runs and 36 steals, and seemed to signal a progression that placed the player known as 'JRoll' among the elite at his position. At age 29, he seemed a regular strength that the Phils would be able to count on for at least the next few years. Instead, he pretty much crashed and burned statistically and production-wise in 2008, in which he would finish with just 11 homers, 59 rbi, and 76 runs scored, numbers that are completely unacceptable as the leadoff man in one of the most offensively solid lineups in baseball, playing his home games in a hitters paradise, and coming off an MVP year. But one thing that Jimmy Rollins never, ever let happen was that he did not take those offensive struggles out to the field with him. When JRoll took up his position at shortstop for the Phillies, he was again that Gold Glove Award winner. His range into the hole and up the middle, his mastery at turning the doubleplay with keystone partner Chase Utley, that rocket arm, his athleticism in going back on balls into the outfield or over by the 3rd base line, all of this remained. Jimmy Rollins bat might not have been much this season, but his defense at shortstop was a key reason that the Phillies went into this weekend in control of their own destiny, trying to clinch a 2nd straight division title. On Saturday afternoon it would all come together with a highlight reel play that will stand forever in the minds of the fans who witnessed it, either in person or on television. The Phils had a 4-2 lead and handed the ball to closer Brad Lidge for the 9th inning. Lidge was a perfect 40 for 40 in Save opportunities, and the Phils' NL East title seemed all but assured as he struck out the leadoff batter. But then things got hairy as a walk and a couple of dink hits allowed the Washington Nationals to creep within 4-3, with the bases loaded and just one out. An inning earlier the Nats had challenged again, cutting a 3-1 Phils lead down to 3-2, but Rollins had helped put out the fire with a sensational ranging play into No-Man's Land in centerfield. But he saved his best for this 9th inning drama. The Nats talented young leader, 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman, stepped in with those bases loaded, the tying run just 90 feet away with just one out. That close to Lidge losing his season-long perfection. Zimmerman got a pitch he liked and drilled a ground ball back up the middle that appeared for a second that it would roll into centerfield for a 2-run hit and a Nationals lead. But suddenly there was the speedy JRoll, slide-diving to snare the seeing-eye grounder. In the same motion that he speared the ball, he fed it to Utley at 2nd. Chase took the perfect feed for one out, turned, and fired a laser to 1st baseman Ryan Howard that beat the hustling Zimmerman by a couple steps for the game-winning double play. The Phils exploded onto the field to mob one another as the Citizen's Bank Park crowd, and fans watching everywhere, erupted for joy. The Phillies are National League East Division champions for the 2nd straight season, and will open the playoffs at home against the wildcard Milwaukee Brewers. And although he had a down season, they simply would not be there again without the efforts of Jimmy Rollins, both in that clinching game, and in the field all season. Thanks to the gifts of his glove, arm, range, and speed, the Phils are once again JRollin' into the playoffs.

Phillies on a Pennant Push

For a baseball fan like myself, it's always a great summer when your home team is involved in a pennant race. My hometown Philadelphia Phillies have found themselves in the race for most of the past half dozen summers, finally reaching the playoffs a year ago when they won the National League East Division pennant on the final afternoon of the season. The Phils chased down the New York Mets last season, edging them by a single game after trailing by 7 1/2 games with just 17 left to play. This year the Phils are not in such desperate shape heading into the final week of the season. In fact, the club is firmly in control of it's own playoff destiny. By winning their last 7 straight games, they have taken a lead over the Mets by a half game in the NL East, and the New Yorkers have lost their closer, Billy Wagner, for the remainder. Better still, the Phils are two games up on the Milwaukee Brewers, the nearest pursuers to the Mets for the NL Wildcard berth, and the Brewers may have just lost their 2nd best starting pitcher, Ben Sheets, for the remainder. So the Phils enter the next-to-last weekend in first place, and with a firm grasp on a playoff spot. They probably need finish only 5-4 to get the playoff berth, though will perhaps have to do better than that to nail down the divisional title. The Phils offense began the season being led by a red-hot Chase Utley, who bolted out of the gate on fire for the first two months, and Pat Burrell, who was picking up where he left off last season with big hits. Utley and Burrell's fire was needed, as both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino spent significant time on the Disabled List early on, and Ryan Howard was ice cold the first two months. Just when Utley and Burrell began to cool, Howard heated up significantly, and was joined by outfielder Jayson Werth in leading the offense. Victorino returned and also got hot, and as September began even J-Roll began to get his game together and started producing. Howard has remained hot since June, and is a leading NL MVP contender heading into the final week, needing perhaps just one more hot week leading the Phils to that division title to clinch it. But the real reason that the Phils are in this solid position right now is an unexpectedly strong performance from the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. Cole Hamels has been as good as advertised most nights, and Jamie Moyer has once again defied Father Time to post one of his most consistently strong seasons in years. Brett Myers was downright awful for the first three months, got sent down to the minor leagues, and since returning two months ago has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Joe Blanton was added in trade to provide stability, and he has done just that. He will never be a lights-out stopper, but he gives you a dependable, veteran, quality start most times out. Kyle Kendrick kept winning for awhile, but it was with mirrors, and the league finally caught up to him. To the rescue has come lefty J.A. Happ, who has been solid every time the Phils have given him a chance. In the bullpen, the off-season trade to bring in Brad Lidge as the new closer has proven to be perhaps GM Pat Gillick's best acquisition to date. Lidge has been perfect in save opportunities, though he has struggled from time to time since being misused in the MLB All-Star game back in July. The rest of the pen has also been solid, with Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, Rudy Seanez, and now the newly acquired Scott Eyre holding most of the leads with which they have been entrusted. Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett have been invaluable off the bench, and Pedro Feliz has been one of the best defensive 3rd basemen in the league when healthy. The Phils catching combo of Chris Coste & Carlos Ruiz is highly underrated. And for the pennant push there are veteran bench bats Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, So Taguchi, and Tadahito Iguchi around for depth and pinch-hitting. Charlie Manuel's team appears like it has everything that it needs heading into the final games, and hopefully into the playoffs, and there is every reason for we fans to believe that not only will this pennant push be successful, but that the season will continue well into October.

The Ancient Mariner Keeping Phils Afloat

Jamie Moyer was born on November 18th, 1962, just two days short of my own first birthday. John F. Kennedy was the President of the United States and dealing with the Cuban missile crisis, West Side Story was highlighting the motion picture scene, television was still in black & white and had only three channels available, and Richard Nixon had lost the California gubernatorial race stating famously "You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore!" In the preceding months, Hall of Fame athletes Jerry Rice of the NFL, Patrick Ewing of the NBA, Grant Fuhr of the NHL, and boxing champion Evander Holyfield were all born. All are long retired from their respective professional athletic careers. Meanwhile, Jamie Moyer continues at age 45 to slip low-80's fastballs and an assortment of breaking pitches past hitters in Major League Baseball. The team that he now pitches for is my team, and his hometown team, the Philadelphia Phillies. So far in 2008, the Phils have been an underachieving squad that has alternated between first and second place in the National League east division. They were supposed to have a prolific offense, and they remain among the top five scoring clubs in the league, but they have been maddeningly inconsistent, scoring 20 runs one night and then going a week without scoring twenty total over five or six game stretches. The starting rotation was supposed to be solid, with budding young ace Cole Hamels and returning member Brett Myers leading the way. Hamels has been okay, sometimes dominant, sometimes struggling. Myers was a disaster until a mid-season demotion to the minor leagues may finally have turned him around. Through all the drama of a team trying to win its second straight divisional title, trying to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1980-81, the one consistently dependable character has been Jamey Moyer. Last night in San Diego, Moyer pitched 7 innings of shutout ball to win a 1-0 duel with future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, and keep the Phils within one game of the front-running and suddenly hot New York Mets. He is now 11-7 on the season, with a strong 3.64 ERA, and having pitched 151 innings over 25 starts. In short, Jamie Moyer has been a godsend for the Phillies. Moyer was born in the area, in Sellersville, PA, and attended Souderton High School and Saint Joseph's University, making us fellow Hawks. He even made his Major League debut in 1986 for the Chicago Cubs against the Phillies. That's right, he made his debut in 1986! After a promising first few seasons with the Cubs he was dealt to Texas where injury and inconsistency led to his bouncing between there, Saint Louis, Detroit, Chicago again, Baltimore, and Boston in both the Majors and the minor leagues. Finally, in 1996, ten years after making his debut, Jamie was dealt to the Seattle Mariners, a move that would change his career and his life. Jamie got to Seattle at a great time, the heyday of the Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson days in the Emerald City, and he took off professionally. For the next decade, from 1996 through 2006, Moyer became a consistently strong starter, winning 145 games while losing just 87, and producing a pair of 20-win seasons. As he aged into his forties and continued to win there, Jamie gained the nickname 'The Ancient Mariner', and was a local icon in the Seattle area. During the 2006 playoff race, Jamie was dealt to the Phillies and pitched strong, going 5-2 for a Phils team that fell short of the playoffs. But in 2007, the Phils finally won the NL East on the final day of the season. Who was on the mound on that final decisive Sunday but one Jamie Moyer. He pitched 5+ shutout innings that day, and the Phils moved into the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. Once again this season, Jamie Moyer continues to defy the skeptics and Father Time, and continues to find MLB success. With the last two NL MVP's in Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, MVP caliber 2nd baseman Chase Utley, longtime slugger Pat Burrell, revitalized closer Brad Lidge, as well as rotation-mates Hamels and Myers, the Phils are loaded with stars who apparently have more talent than Moyer. But 'The Ancient Mariner' may in the end be the single most valuable player on this Phillies team. He just keeps confounding hitters, winning ball games, and keeping the Phillies close in the standings in this once again tight race.

Chasing a Homerun Derby Crown

Tonight is the annual Homerun Derby contest, which has become a staple at the Major League Baseball All-Star festival since the 1985 season when Dave Parker, the longtime Pittsburgh Pirates slugger but then of the Cincinnati Reds, took the contest held in Minnesota. The Homerun Derby pits a half dozen of baseball's top hitters, usually among the game's biggest sluggers, in a contest to see who can hit the most home runs before making ten 'outs', which come anytime a player swings at a pitched ball and anything other than a home run occurs. Chase Utley of my hometown Philadelphia Phillies, and my personal favorite player in the game today, will be taking part. Chase is currently 3rd in all of baseball with 25 home runs at the break, trailing only teammate Ryan Howard and Cincy's Adam Dunn. He will be trying to become the 3rd Phillie in the past 4 years to win the contest. Howard took the honors back in 2006, and Bobby Abreu won in 2005 when he was still with the Phils. The only multiple winner has been living legend Ken Griffey Jr, who won the contest in 1994, '98 & '99. Many of the games greatest players over the past two decades have won the contest at one time or another including Barry Bonds (96), Frank Thomas (95), Mark McGwire (92), and Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr (91) & Ryne Sandberg (90). The '86 contest is the only one to end in a tie (Darryl Strawberry & Wally Joyner), while the '88 contest was cancelled due to rain. The reigning champion is Angels superstar outfielder Vlad Guerrero, but he will not be taking part, so a new champ will be crowned in tonight's action at legendary Yankee Stadium. This is the final season at the classic "House that Ruth Built", and it's notoriously short right-field porch should beckon to some of the top lefties such as Utley. Lance Berkman of the Astros is having a great season, and has participated four times previously, so he would seem to be a favorite. Also as a fave would be Twins slugger Justin Morneau, the only person who competed in last year's event who is back again. Morneau is a lefty, and so he could make a serious run. But my own pick will be a battle between Utley and the man who I believe will be the eventual winner. That prediction is for Texas Rangers feel-good story, outfielder Josh Hamilton (pictured), to add his name to the winners circle. It should be a fun event, especially in New York as we all begin to say goodbye to Yankee Stadium.

Ryan Howard is Underrated

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard may be the single most feared slugger in Major League Baseball over the past few seasons, and yet somehow the guy remains underrated. How else can you explain that the man who will be the National League leader in both homeruns and rbi will likely be left off the N.L. All-Star team when next Tuesday's mid-summer classic takes place? Should he not make the squad, Howard would be the first player in 60 years to be leading his league in both categories and still not make the team. The problem for some who make the selections, and who evaluate ballplayers, is that Howard strikes out at an even more prolific rate than he homers, and that his batting average of .234 is too low. However, there are a number of problems with criticizing Howard for these perceived shortcomings. First, as pointed out in today's Philadelphia Inquirer by writer Todd Zolecki, the folks at baseball think-tank Baseball Prospectus did research on the relationship between teams' strikeout rates and run production for a period covering over a half-century, from the 1950-2002 seasons, and found no correlation whatsoever. In 2005, after taking another look at the strikeout-runs correlation, they noted that each strikeout only costs a team about 3/100's of a run. Ryan Howard strikes out a lot, but that is highly overrated. If he struck out 50 fewer times, but instead 30 of those were groundouts and 20 were decent-length flyouts, would he be viewed any better? His average certainly would be just the same, and just as poor. However, again average is another deceptive statistic. A batting average determines roughly how many times out of every ten at-bats a player will get a hit. If one player will get 23 hits for every 100 at-bats, and another player will get 27 hits for every 100 at-bats, does that make the latter player much more effective? In fact, does it make that player more effective at all? Fact is that so far this season, Howard is the former player, while Kevin Kouzmanoff of San Diego would be a prime example of the latter. Howard is hitting .234 while Kouzmanoff is hitting .274 with 11 homers and 37 rib. Kouzmanoff is hitting 40 points higher. Who would you rather have on your team, now or in the future? Another factor to consider is that Howard has fallen into a pattern of starting slow and finishing big over the course of a season. Two months ago, he was hitting just .163, but has hit a solid .272 since that time. The fact is that Ryan Howard is one of the best run-producers in all of baseball, and scoring runs is the name of the game. He leads the majors in homers and is 2nd in RBI. Health allowing, he is going to smack close to 50 homeruns again this year, and drive in close to 140 runs. The final argument on Howard's all-star worthiness should be the production of others at the position so far in 2008. The other leading contenders would perhaps be N.L. starter Lance Berkman (.348/22/70), Derek Lee/Cubs (.304/15/55), Adrian Gonzalez/Padres (.279/22/70), and Albert Pujols/Cardinals (.348/18/49). Both Gonzalez & Pujols have been named as reserves for the N.L. squad, and are deserving for consideration. But Howard's 27 homers and 83 rbi lead both of them, even factoring in that Pujols spent some time injured. This time of year, every team can look around and find a couple of players on their roster who they believe should have been all-stars but who fail to make the final cut. On the Phils' roster most would probably try to make the case for Pat Burrell & Cole Hamels. But I think that an even more compelling case can be made for Ryan Howard, who because of an over-emphasis on his strikeouts and low average has somehow reached the status of underrated ballplayer. If the Phillies were to actually lose his 50 homeruns and 140 rbi, they would not replace them, perhaps ever again.