MLB 2010: American League

If there is one consistent in almost every single prognostication for the American League in the coming 2010 season it will be that the Yankees and Red Sox will finish 1-2 in some order in the AL East. Almost every one, because you won't find that pick here. For the 2nd straight year my pick is for the Rays to win the East, and to advance back into the World Series for the 2nd time in 3 seasons.

In that AL East division race, Tampa will be able to matchup with the 'big boys' in New York and Boston with talented young pitching that I believe is primed to take a big step forward, a deep bullpen, and some exciting young hitters throughout the lineup. Leading that rotation is underrated ace James Shields, just entering his prime at 28 years old and the senior member. Following him in order will be Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis.

The Rays now have a legitimate closer in Rafael Soriano, and a quality setup man in Dan Wheeler. But they will be challenged at least early as lefty J.P. Howell battles injury. The offense will feature 3rd baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder Carl Crawford, two of the best, most exciting all-around players in baseball. They will be supplemented by outfielder B.J. Upton, 1st baseman Carlos Pena, 2nd baseman Ben Zobrist, and shortstop Jason Bartlett.

I am picking that Yankees-Red Sox race as a dead-even battle right behind Tampa, with the 2nd place team here in the AL East becoming the Wild Card playoff club. At this point, I'm going to call it for the Red Sox. Boston made significant upgrades to it's defense in the off-season. That and the further development of some of it's young stars will make the difference, and leave the defending World Series champion Yankees on the outside looking in come the post-season.

Boston comes at you in it's rotation with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, 'Dice-K' Matsuzaka and either youngster Clay Buccholz or veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield as the 5th starter. Closer Jonathan Papelbon and his young setup man Daniel Bard take a back seat to no one in those roles. Boston has a deep, versatile bullpen behind those two as well that will allow it to matchup in most any way it wants against any opponent in the late innings.

In the lineup, the Bosox have brought in brilliant defenders in shortstop Marco Scutaro, 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre, and outfielder Mike Cameron. They join a quality returning cast that includes outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, 1st baseman Kevin Youkilis, and outfielder J.D. Drew. Last season's big pickup, catcher Victor Martinez, will be around for his first full year in Beantown. A huge key will be DH David Ortiz. A full productive season from 'Big Papi' might push Boston past Tampa at the wire.

The Yankees return a team that is good enough to once again contend all season. Rotation regulars C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez are as good a 1-4 as there is in the game. Phil Hughes has won the 5th starter role, and his pitching in that role will be pivotal in the Yanks attempt to repeat. Joba Chamberlain has been bumped to the pen, where his skill set actually profiles better than on the mound. He is part of a talented bullpen crew setting up the game's all-time greatest clutch closer, Mariano Rivera.

At the plate the Yanks will come at other teams with a deep, veteran group of professional, dynamic hitters that includes Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, and newcomer Curtis Granderson. I just don't think that the Yankees overall lineup or depth profiles as strong and versatile as the Rays or the Red Sox. But there is certainly enough top level talent that if they all perform up to their potential, the Yankees could successfully repeat as champions.

The AL East is filled out by Baltimore and Toronto, each of whom has reason to hope, but each of whom is light-years behind the top three clubs at this point. The Orioles are my pick for 4th place. With a lineup that features strong, young stud hitters like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold supported by solid veteran 2nd baseman Brian Roberts and still-talented old-head 3rd baseman Miguel Tejada, the O's will be no pushover. How fast their young pitching, especially Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman, become real big league winners will determine how fast they begin to challenge.

The Blue Jays loss of longtime veteran ace Roy Halladay in trade have them looking like cellar-dwellers, a position which they might occupy for a few years to come as they rebuild. In fact, we might as well name the other bottom feeders throughout the American League right now. Kansas City in the AL Central and Oakland in the AL West have the looks of last place clubs right now, despite the presence of '09 A.L. Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke in KC and fast-rising righthander Brett Anderson with the A's.

At the top of the AL Central, I am going to pick the Minnesota Twins. That pick would have been an easy one with veteran closer Joe Nathan on board, but he will have Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. I believe that the Twins lineup featuring my pick for AL MVP, catcher Joe Mauer supported by 1st baseman Justin Morneau, outfielder Michael Cuddyer, DH Jason Kubel, and 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson is the best in the division. The Twins pitching is a bit 'no-name', but it has depth and talent as well.

For the rest of the AL Central, I'm going to pick it as Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland in that order. The Tigers rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer at the top has tremendous upside potential, and they have a solid bullpen with newcomer Jose Valverde at the back. Manager Ozzier Guillen will drive his Chisox to contend much of the year before falling short with no fault to the 1-2 punch of Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy at the top of the rotation or dynamic youngster Gordon Beckham at 2nd base. The Tribe has 'dark horse' written all over it, but just too many questions right now to actually pick higher than 4th place.

In the AL West, it has been the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim running the show for most of the last decade. I see the Halos again taking the division, but it's getting tighter. Hitters like Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales, and Howie Kendrick, and pitching that remains deep and talented despite the loss of ace John Lackey should be enough. Seattle seriously cut into the LA edge by obtaining veteran lefty Cliff Lee to go along with young ace Felix Hernandez. Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki give the M's a pair of offensive dynamos, but the signing of perennial bad boy Milton Bradley should blow up in their faces. Texas has plenty of offensive pop, but doesn't seem to have enough pitching to challenge for the top just yet.

When the playoffs begin in the American League, I think that the experience the young Rays gained by unexpectedly advancing to the 2008 World Series will serve them well this time around. I can see the Rays and the Red Sox downing the Twins and the Angels in the post-season, advancing to meet one another in what would shape up to be an ALCS as potentially dramatic as their '08 series won by Tampa in 7 games. No reason this rematch won't go the same distance, and I'm picking the Rays to frustrate Red Sox Nation one more time.

For the big award winners, I look into my crystal ball and see catcher Joe Mauer of the Twins taking the AL MVP Award in a very tight race with Rays' 3rd baseman Evan Longoria. I'll take the Tigers righthanded flame-thrower Justin Verlander to win the American League Cy Young Award. Much of the AL Rookie of the Year talk is already centering around Texas' flame thrower Neftali Feliz and a pair of Tigers in 2nd baseman Scott Sizemore and outfielder Austin Jackson. But I'm going to call it for Baltimore Orioles lefty Brian Matusz. There seems to be a ton of good, young talent at Camden Yards, and Matusz will be one of the keys as the franchise tries to return to it's former greatness in the AL East, baseball's toughest division.

COMING TOMORROW: MLB 2010: National League

MLB 2009: American League

Our World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies will open up defense of their crown on Sunday night at Citizens Bank Park in a nationally televised game against the Atlanta Braves. For the next three days leading up to Opening Day, I will take a look at Major League Baseball's upcoming 2009 season, beginning today with a look at the American League, continuing on Friday with the National League, and then finally on Saturday taking a close look at the Fightin' Phils in particular. All talk about contention for the American League pennant has to start in the East Division, home to three of the best teams in baseball. The defending A.L. champion Tampa Bay Rays didn't do much in the off-season, but they did make the one move that they really needed, adding a strong, veteran right-handed bat to their lineup. I think most of you may have heard of him. His name: Pat Burrell. Yup, 'Pat the Bat' (pictured), who helped dash the Rays hopes in last fall's World Series with a booming double high off the top of the centerfield wall to lead off the bottom of the 7th inning of a tied-up Game #5 signed with those Rays as a free agent. The fact was that the Phils never really made an offer to Burrell, who was beginning to become a defensive liability in left field and whose bat was always streaky. That double was in fact his only hit of the World Series. Still, thanks to a nice career overall and that final ringing heroic moment, Burrell will always deserve and receive affection from Phillies fans. He comes to a team that remains one of the youngest in baseball, but also one of its most talented. 3rd baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder B.J. Upton are two of baseball's biggest rising stars. 1st baseman Carlos Pena and outfielder Carl Crawford are two of game's biggest offensive threats. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Akinori Iwamura, who just helped Japan win the World Baseball Classic for the 2nd straight time, and shortstop Jason Bartlett, who was thrown out at home plate in that 'fake throw' play in the deciding World Series game by Chase Utley that is legendary in Phillies lore, are both underrated and make a strong doubleplay combination. On the mound, the Rays sent perhaps their future best pitcher in David Price to the minor leagues to begin the season. He will be back by May at the latest, and he will be one of the game's elite arms this season and in years to come. Along with Price the Rays bring talent and depth to the rotation with James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and others. The one weak link could perhaps be the bullpen, which performed well a year ago, but whose closer Troy Percival got hurt late in the year and is always an injury risk. The Rays may need to dip into that young talent pool to solidify the back end of their bullpen, but given health they will battle the Yankees and Red Sox for the AL East crown and another trip to the World Series. Those Yankees are moving into new digs this year at the billion dollar 'New Yankee Stadium', which replaces the legendary 'House That Ruth Built'. It will be new surroundings for the Bronx Bombers, and they will have some dynamic new faces to play there after a typical free agent signing spree. The new 1st baseman, Mark Teixeira, is perhaps the best all-around player at his position in the game. His bat should help ease the sting of losing 3rd baseman Alex Rodriguez to injury. A-Rod suffered through a difficult off-season that was mostly of his own making, but it may be the injury that proves most hurtful to the Yanks chances. The team needs him to recover and come back in May as the ARod of old, or it may struggle all year on offense. Shortstop Derek Jeter is slipping a bit, but remains the consummate team leader. On the mound, the Yanks shored up their rotation by signing both C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang back from injury. They team with veteran Andy Pettitte and young phenom Joba Chamberlain to give the Yanks one of the best rotations in the game, one that will keep them in the pennant race to the end. Closer Mariano Rivera, a future Hall of Famer, is still around to shut the door at the end. In Boston, the beloved Red Sox are also talent-rich on the mound. The rotation is led by Josh Beckett and Daisuke 'Dice-K' Matsuzaka, who was just named the MVP of the World Baseball Classic for the 2nd straight time. These two veterans will be sandwiched between one of the best young arms in the game in Jon Lester, who overcame a cancer scare a couple years back and is ready to step to the elite level. The Bosox bullpen, finished off by closer Jonathan Papelbon, may be the best in the division. On offense the key will be whether David 'Big Papi' Ortiz can continue to be a legitimate big power source in the middle of the batting order. The club also has some aging and injury-prone veteran bats in outfielder J.D. Drew, 3rd baseman Mike Lowell, and catcher Jason Varitek. But it also has a couple of exciting youngsters in gritty MVP 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. That is my prediction for the 1-2-3 positions in baseball's strongest division, with the Rays edging out the Yanks and Red Sox. The Central Division looks to me to be a complete toss-up, with everyone except the Royals having a legitimate shot. The Minnesota Twins chances hinge on sensational catcher and team leader Joe Mauer being able to stay healthy for most of the season, because they have enough pitching to stay with the others. The Cleveland Indians are led by MVP candidate centerfielder Grady Sizemore, but have a ton of questions. Get the right answers and they contend as well. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox, who won the division a year ago in a playoff with Minnesota, have similarly solid lineups with question marks up and down. In this division, I will go with the White Sox and manager Ozzie Guillen to find a way to again come out on top, with Cleveland and Minnesota hot on their heels if they stay healthy. Out in the West Division, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have been the perennial favorites, but they are starting to come back to an improving pack. They lost record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira to free agency, and now their top two starters in John Lackey and Ervin Santana are hurt and will at least begin the season on the DL. With veteran superstar Vlad Guerrero perhaps aging quickly, this could be a struggling season for the Halos. On their heels if they can find any reasonable starting pitching will be the improving Texas Rangers. The Rangers have some of the most explosive bats in the game. Outfielder Josh Hamilton, whose remarkable comeback from drug addiction has been highly publicized, is an MVP candidate. 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler rivals the Phils' Chase Utley as the top offensive player in the game at the position. 1st baseman Chris Davis and 3rd baseman Michael Young are also premier offensive talents. The play of rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus could be a key here, along with that pitching. The Oakland A's picked up a trio of veteran bats in the off-season in 1st baseman Jason Giambi, shortstop Orlando Cabrera, and outfielder Matt Holliday. Combine these with a young but talented pitching staff and the A's could surprise as well. I am going way out on a limb here and picking the Rangers to take the west, followed closely by the Angels and A's. In the playoffs, I just cannot see any of the other teams being able to matchup with the Rays-Yankees-Red Sox combination. Funny thing is, only two of those clubs can make the post-season even though they will likely be the three best teams in the A.L. overall. Call it a Rays-Yankees showdown for the pennant, with the youthful Rays overcoming the Yanks' first playoff appearance in their new ballpark. As long as Longoria, Upton, Pena, Crawford, and Burrell stay healthy, Pat the Bat could be returning to the big stage of the World Series this coming fall.

Rays of Hope

It's mid-August, and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, er, just plain 'Rays', are in first place in the American League east division. That is not a typo. I did not mean to say that first place belongs to the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, or the perennial pennant-winning New York Yankees. No, first place in the AL East belongs to the upstarts from Florida, and real baseball fans know the significance in that development. The 'Rays' as they are now formally known (they dropped the 'Devil' from the front of the nickname this past off-season) are now bringing sunshine to Tropicana Field for the first time in their history. The franchise was founded in 1998 as part of a baseball expansion, and has finished in last place in all but one season ever since, that being in 2004 when they finished in 4th place. They are one of just four current teams to have never played in a World Series (the others being the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and new Washington Nationals.) In fact, before this season the team had never won more than 70 games in a season. But this past weekend the Rays won their 71st game, breaking their franchise record, and have generally held first place in the power-packed AL East for most of the past couple of months. Fluke? Feel-good story that will likely fade? Far from it. Anyone who follows baseball as closely as I do has seen this coming, it was just a matter of 'when' it would happen, not 'that' it would happen at all. For a half dozen years now, the Rays on-field futility has resulted in high draft positions, and the team management has made astute choices that has led to a minor league system that has been teaming with talent. Players such as young outfielders Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, and B.J. Upton, 3rd baseman Evan Longoria, and pitcher James Shields have come through those drafts, and will soon be joined by last season's #1 pick pitcher David Price. The club made an astute trade during 2004 in which they stole young starting pitching stud Scott Kazmir from the New York Mets. This past off-season, management made a handful of astute deals that have lifted the Rays to the next level of contention, signing free agent closer Troy Percival, veteran bench bat Cliff Floyd, and another young starting pitcher in Matt Garza. Manager Joe Maddon guided his charges past Seattle yesterday to win their 71st game, a new franchise record with almost two months remaining in the regular season. The victory pushed the Rays 4 1/2 games in front of the Bosox in that AL East race. Fans should get used to this, as the Rays aren't going away any time soon. Their young pitching is some of the best in all of baseball, a key that will keep them contenders all by itself. But those arms aren't alone. Crawford is a somewhat anonymous superstar, and both Upton and Longoria are legitimate top-level talents who will be stars in Florida for years to come. When the Rays dropped the 'Devil' from their nickname this past off-season, owner Stuart Sternberg said that the team was now the 'Rays' and would be a "beacon of light that radiates throughout Tampa Bay and across the entire state of Florida." I don't know that he realized just how soon these young Rays would shine so brightly, but their play has central Florida square in baseball's pennant race as the 'Dog Days' of August move along. As always, the title of this blog posting is a link to more information, this time on the history of the Tampa Bay Rays baseball franchise.
NOTE: The Rays suffered a double-jolt on the day of this article, with star outfielder Crawford and rookie phenom 3rd baseman Longoria, the two biggest keys to their offense, going on the disabled list at the same time. Will be a true test for this young contender.....