NFL Playoff Predictions

There is really only one way to make predictions on the outcome of some game or tournament and have yourself taken seriously, and that is to make them before even a single moment has been played. So here we are, just moments away from the kickoff of the first game of the NFL playoffs, and that makes it time for my personal predictions on how this month-long tournament will play out.

Let's start at home with our Philadelphia Eagles. What a tremendous, in some ways over-achieving season it has been for the Birds. When the team left training camp in early September, most fans were planning on a rebuilding year as Kevin Kolb took over at quarterback after a decade behind Donovan McNabb. An 8-8 finish that showed positive signs for 2011 would probably have been considered a success at that point.

But in the opening game against Green Bay, Kolb was injured. In stepped Michael Vick. The rest, as they say, is history. Vick emerged as an uncommon weapon, and an NFL MVP candidate. The team took off behind his acrobatics, bolted to the front of the NFC East, and then capped it all with a rally for the ages in a late December game against the rival New York Giants to take the division crown.

That the team faltered in it's final two regular season games should not be as much cause for concern as it seems to have become for some fans and members of the media. The team was obviously thrown off by the sudden switch of the Vikings game from Sunday night to Tuesday night due to snow a couple of weeks ago. That surprising defeat led to the full-scale benching of regulars for the finale against Dallas, as Andy Reid basically gave them a bye week. The result was a close, last-minute loss by the Eagles subs to the Cowboys regulars.

The more important factors for the Eagles entering the opening week matchup are their opponents, and the condition of their own players. The Eagles have lost key contributors in the past couple of weeks, while the Packers have played extremely well since the return to health of their outstanding quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

I want the Eagles to win. I will be rooting hard for it to happen.
I want to be wrong. Because putting a gun to my head, which is what you basically do when you come out in public with predictions, and I will pick the Packers to advance. Most of Eagles Nation cannot be upset with me, because they feel the same way. In a poll taken at Philly.com, a full 50% of fans believe "The Pack will prevail", while 38% said the Eagles will "win - barely" and another 12% said "The Birds will win big."

Let's call the final score something along the lines of 27-20, Green Bay. The Eagles best chance will be for a beat-up offensive line to find a way to give Vick enough time to make a handful of big plays and have the Eagles win a high-scoring affair. I see the banged-up offensive line and a defense that still needs 1-2 more playmakers falling just a bit short. I hope I am wrong.

So with the Eagles fate out of the way with, time to turn attention to the rest of the tournament. In the rest of the opening weekend, I am looking for wins from Baltimore over Kansas City, New Orleans over Seattle, and Indianapolis over the New York Jets. I think the Raves are just physical enough to edge out KC on the road. The defending Super Bowl champion Saints are back, are hot, and are much better than the host Seahawks. And I am going to always find it hard to bet against Peyton Manning at home.

This means that my 2nd round matchups will have New England beating Baltimore, Pittsburgh beating Indianapolis, Atlanta beating Green Bay, and New Orleans beating Chicago. The Pats are just too good right now for anyone. The Steelers get Manning in wintry western Pennsylvania. The Falcons have too much offense, especially inside their dome. And the defending champs are just better than Da Bears, even outside on the road in winter.

In the respective conference title tilts, I will go with the Pats over the Steelers and the Saints over the Falcons. Again, until someone shows me that I am wrong, New England looks like the best team in football right now. And heading back indoors for the NFC Championship, I will pick Drew Brees over Matt Ryan in what should be an epic title game.

That brings us to the Big Game, the NFL Championship at Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, Texas. With the Cowboys thankfully not in attendance, I am looking for Tom Brady to lead the Patriots to the title for the 4th time in 10 years. This will put the New England Patriots franchise behind only the Steelers (6), Cowboys (5) and 49ers (5) for all-time Super Bowl victories. Brady should be the MVP.

There ya have it. Let the games begin. Again, I would absolutely love for Michael Vick to become a true miracle worker and lead the Eagles to their first-ever Super Bowl title. The team certainly has some of the top offensive weapons, has the 2nd best head coach, and has a rabid fan base. But it will again be the Patriots year come February 6th, 2011 in 'Big D'.

Goodbye, Donovan McNabb

There has been a battle brewing in my pro football-crazed town of Philadelphia over the past couple of football seasons. That battle has been over the fate and future of it's quarterback, Donovan McNabb. Is McNabb good enough to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl? Should McNabb be traded away? The answer apparently came on Easter Sunday night when the Eagles traded McNabb to the division rival Washington Redskins for a pair of draft picks.

Some have been waiting for more than a decade for McNabb to stumble and fall. These were the Eagles fans infamously known as the 'Boo Birds', the fans who showed up for the NFL Draft in 1999 hoping and praying that their beloved Eagles would select running back Ricky Williams to lead them out of the wilderness of losing seasons that had befallen the team. With the 2nd overall pick, Williams was there waiting for the Birds. But much to the chagrin of the rabid fan base, Commissioner Paul Tagliabue stepped to the podium and made this announcement:

"With the 2nd pick the Philadelphia Eagles select Donovan McNabb, quarterback, Syracuse University."

Never before has such a torrent of boisterous "boo" calls rained down upon an NFL Commissioner as the Eagles fans delivered on that infamous day. And that is saying a lot, considering the Draft is held in New York, rabid Jets fans show up regularly in numbers, and their team has made some awful picks over the years.

However, thankfully for the majority of Philadelphia Eagles fans, and also for those 'Boo Birds' even if they weren't yet ready or willing to admit it at the time (some never were) the Eagles made the correct selection that Draft day. The fans wanted someone to lead them out of the losing wilderness, and they got it in the outgoing, personable, talented, confident young man who coach Andy Reid had hand-picked to become his quarterback, centerpiece, and leader.

McNabb was coming off a storied collegiate career at Syracuse, where he had started every game and led the team to a 35-14 record between 1995-1998. He set school records for the longest TD pass and the most passing yards in a season. He set or tied numerous other school records, and accounted for 5 touchdowns vs. a vaunted Miami squad. In his senior season, he led the Orangemen to a berth in the Orange Bowl, and was brilliant in the team's narrow 34-33 loss to eventual National Champion Tennessee, a team that has been ranked as the 2nd greatest college football team of all-time.

McNabb was more than just a strong-armed passer, however. He was also a strong and fearless running quarterback. By the time that 1999 NFL Draft came around, McNabb had been recognized as the Big East conference's Player of the Decade for the 1990's, a first team all-conference selection each of his four years, and it's Offensive Player of the Year in each of his final three seasons. That the fans would boo a guy with this resume after years of watching the likes of Jeff Kemp, Brad Goebel, Bubby Brister, Rodney Peete, Bobby Hoying, Doug Pederson, and both Ty & Koy Detmer guiding their team shows just how ridiculous they can be at times.

Donovan McNabb got his very first start in his rookie season against, ironically, the Washington Redskins. He guided the Birds to a 35-28 victory that day and remained the starter from that moment until being traded away this past Sunday. In his first full season the following year, McNabb became a bona fide NFL star when he finished 2nd in the MVP voting and led the Eagles back to the playoffs for the first time in five years, including a playoff win over the favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2001, McNabb took the Eagles to another level, leading them to an NFC East title and taking them all the way to the NFC Championship game where they lost a heart-breaking tight contest to a heavily favored St. Louis Rams team led by the NFL MVP, running back Marshall Faulk. The 2002 season began brightly for the Birds, but became questionable when McNabb suffered a broken ankle in the 11th week. He worked and fought hard to return, getting back in time to lead the club to a playoff win over Atlanta. However, the team lost, this time as home favorites, in the NFC Championship to Tampa Bay in the final game ever at Veteran's Stadium. Despite McNabb's heroism and sportsmanship in getting back that year at all, some of the fan base began to turn on him that very day.

The 2003 season would just add more fuel to the fire, and more fans to the bandwagon, for getting rid of McNabb. He once again led the team to the NFC Championship game at home, once again as the favorites, and for the 3rd consecutive season to a loss in that NFC finale, this time to a devastating Carolina Panthers defense that beat the Eagles on the scoreboard and that physically beat up McNabb, knocking him out of the first title game at the new Lincoln Financial Field. It was after this loss that McNabb and the word "choke" officially began to become synonymous to a growing number of fans and media personalities.

The Eagles realized as an organization that something drastic needed to be done to get them over the hump of NFC title game losses, and drastic is just what they did, signing outspoken and controversial but mega-talented wide receiver Terrell Owens to serve as a key weapon for McNabb. For that one season, it was a match made in football heaven. McNabb had the best season of his outstanding career, and with Owens helping to lead the way the Birds again advanced into the playoffs. It seemed like a story-book ending waiting to happen until Owens suffered a broken ankle and looked likely to miss the playoffs. With Owens out, McNabb led the Eagles to a playoff win over the Vikings and then, finally, to an NFC Championship win over the Atlanta Falcons and young hotshot quarterback Michael Vick.

The Eagles were finally over that hump. They had actually won the NFC Championship, and had done it on their home turf at the Lince in front of their joyous fans. It was now on to the Super Bowl at last. Facing them would be the tough defending NFL Champion New England Patriots, and Owens was working furiously in an attempt to return from the injury that many believed had ended his season. Owens did indeed make it back, and the Eagles gave the Patriots fits in the NFL's big game before falling just short in a 24-21 defeat.

To say that McNabb was at fault for that loss is ridiculous, but many Eagles fans did say just that and still believe that to this very day. He completed 30-51 passes for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns, had his team tied with the NFL Champs after 3 quarters, and nearly engineered a great final-minutes rally in the 4th quarter. But he also threw 3 interceptions, and was sacked 3 times by a tremendous Pats' defense that kept him under fierce pressure the entire game. And then there was the 'puke' incident.

In post-game interviews, one Eagle said that McNabb was so hyper at one point in the huddle that he nearly puked. Despite the fact that it was disputed by McNabb and his teammates, and that there was no video evidence in the most camera-covered event of the year, some fans and media ran with it and said that McNabb had thrown up during the most important game of his life because he was too nervous, a sign that he couldn't take the pressure in a big game.

That loss in the Super Bowl was devastating to many fans. They had finally reached the NFL version of the promised land after so many recent attempts had fallen just short. Now to have had the game been so frustratingly close and have had the Eagles walk away with still no Lombardi Trophy was too much for some. McNabb threw three interceptions and threw up from bad nerves on the field. He simply couldn't win the big games. He was a choke artist. McNabb needed to go. This became the aura that surrounded the team, fed in particular by local talk sports radio station 610 WIP AM and their cast of buffoon announcers and borderline 'expert' sports analysts.

For most of the next few years, McNabb suffered a series of legitimate injuries that began to add concerns that he was also 'brittle' as well as being a choker. With each passing year, the voice of the fans and the radio media seemed to cry out louder and louder for McNabb's ouster, and when it didn't come, that anger and frustration began to turn also on head coach Andy Reid. Those fans who hated McNabb and wanted him out of town began to criticize Reid for being too loyal and stubborn to his longtime centerpiece player.

The calls for changes at both quarterback and head coach were temporarily eased when the Eagles once again, and somewhat unexpectedly, reached yet another NFC Championship game following the 2008 season. McNabb set a career high with more than 3,900 passing yards and guided the club to a romp over the hated rival Dallas Cowboys in the season finale to gain the final NFL playoff berth. He then led the team to playoff wins over Minnesota and the Giants before losing another heart-breaking close game in the NFC title tilt in Arizona.

It was during that up and down 2008 season that McNabb was first benched by Reid. During a difficult loss to the Baltimore Ravens, a healthy McNabb was sent to the bench and 2007 draft choice Kevin Kolb was given an opportunity to enter his first NFL game. When McNabb began the 2009 season following that Arizona title game loss with yet another injury, Kolb got a chance to start with more experience under his belt. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 300 yards in his first two starts, getting the Eagles off to a 1-1 start before McNabb returned.

That was the final straw for many. Not only was McNabb an injury-prone, aging, choking puker and loser when it counted most, but his understudy now appeared to be absolutely ready to take over the lead role. In what would prove to be his swan song, McNabb led the Eagles to an 11-4 record and a season finale showdown with Dallas once again. If the Birds won, they would get the NFC East division title, a #2 playoff seeding and a first-round playoff bye, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. Not only did Dallas blowout the Eagles that day, but then again a week later in the playoffs. The twin losses to their most hated rival by a combined score of 58-14 were the final nails in the coffin for the quarterback.

The story of Donovan McNabb's career as the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback stretches back now for a full decade. For the entire first decade of this new millenium, McNabb led the Birds to the playoffs 8 times in 10 seasons, a record not only unmatched but unapproached in franchise history. He set Eagles career records for pass completions, attempts, yardage, and touchdowns. He set franchise single-season records for both completions and yards. He led the team to 5 NFC Championship games and only the 2nd Super Bowl appearance in it's history.

For those who questioned the strong-armed McNabb's accuracy over the years, the facts speak otherwise. He holds the NFL record for consecutive pass completions, and is the NFL's least-intercepted quarterback per pass attempt of all-time. In that 2004 storybook season he became the first NFL quarterback in history to throw for more than 30 touchdowns with fewer than 10 interceptions. And to highlight his excitement and versatility, he is one of only six NFL quarterbacks of all-time to register over 25,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards.

The fact is that Donovan McNabb is simply the greatest quarterback in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles franchise. The era for which he will always be remembered should, in fact, be remembered as the greatest sustained era of winning excellence in the team's long history that is pock-marked by numerous losing years and eras. I have personally always been a fan and supporter of the man. He was never anything less than a positive role model in the community and a smiling, positive leader on the field. He was also, despite what the WIP nut jobs and those 'Boo Birds' will still likely never admit, a winner.

Goodbye and good luck in your future, Donovan McNabb. Thanks for the numerous great memories and big wins. I will personally be hoping that in those two games per year that the Redskins will play against the Eagles, that Donovan enjoys a fine afternoon but comes up short on the scoreboard. Of course, that is just what he was criticized for here over the years. It's ironic that this time the 'Boo Birds' would be cheering that type of result from him and his team.

Michael Vick Deserves a 2nd Chance

It was one week ago that the Philadelphia sports scene was thrown into a tizzy when the Eagles stole the headlines from the world champion Phillies, not with their efforts on the field in their first exhibition game, but off the field with the signing of quarterback Michael Vick.

For anyone who has been living in a cave during this past week, let's catch you up on the Vick story.

He first burst on to the scene a decade ago when as a freshman quarterback at Virginia Tech he finished 3rd in the Heisman Trophy balloting. Following his sophomore college season he was selected by the Atlanta Falcons with the first overall pick in the 2001 NFL Draft. Over the next six seasons, Vick grew into one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in NFL history, and took the Falcons to the playoffs twice.

Vick became a major sports celebrity for his on-field excitement, but it was something that he was involved with off the field that would define the last few years. It came to light that Vick was not only involved directly in, but was also the financial backer for a major dogfighting operation. The losing dogs in the already vicious fights would usually be tortured and/or executed, often by brutal methods. Vick took an active role in this illegal and immoral activity.

In August of 2007, Vick plead guilty to federal charges that had been brought against him for the dogfighting operation. He was suspended indefinitely by the NFL. He was sued by the Falcons, and a court eventually ruled that he had to repay $20 million dollars in bonus money, some of which Vick had used to help finance the dogfighting. He went on to serve a year and a half in prison, then another couple of months under house arrest, and has filed for bankruptcy.

So a week ago when the Eagles announced the signing of Michael Vick, it wasn't only an announcement of the signing of a new player, but it was an announcement of the signing of a man who had become a social pariah in recent years. A man who was considered by many to be an outcast from society. Cruel, sadistic, manipulative, and even downright evil.

This was a surprise on a number of counts. First, the talks between Vick and various members of the Eagles operation had been going on for days, perhaps even weeks, with no one in the media having even a hint that it was happening. And second, the Birds have always been considered one of the NFL's more squeaky clean organizations, with coach Andy Reid in particular as one who did not tolerate bad behavior from players.

Fan and media reaction was immediate and intense. There were cries from fans stating that they would never again support the team. There were charges from radio talking heads that the Eagles had "gone crazy" and that the team was "forcing this on the fans" who now had to choose between loyalty to their longtime beloved team and their own moral convictions.

However, these were just a little more than half of the fan base speaking. About half of the people questioned on the subject believed that Vick deserved, in the spirit that everyone deserves, a second chance. This was my initial reaction, but I wanted to wait a little while until things settled down, and I had an opportunity to listen to others and also assess my own feelings a little more deeply.

For anyone who cares, here is how I see the Michael Vick situation.

I think that every person does indeed deserve that second chance, an opportunity to redeem themselves after a fall. I have personally committed actions during my own lifetime for which I have asked for and received that second chance. In fact, when examining your own lives, every single person reading this has needed or wanted a second chance at some point.

Now, having said that everyone deserves one, does that include Michael Vick? Of course it does. In saying that Vick deserves a second chance, does that mean that what he did wasn't heinous? Of course not, it most certainly was. Does it mean that I think what he did was right? Obviously not. Does it mean that we simply wipe the slate fully clean and forget what happened? Can't be done.

Does it mean that he gets away with it? Of course not, Vick served real prison time, lost a financial fortune, lost his personal and professional reputation. His name is now "Mudd" in as strong a way as anyone who has ever worn that label. Face it, Michael Vick has paid a price for what he did. What some people still need to reconcile with is how much punishment is enough, and are there some things in which he should never again participate?

Don't try to sell me on the worn-out idea that pro athletes are supposed to be 'role models' in any way. A role model is supposed to be someone who you look up to, on whom you may even try to pattern your own life direction, who provides you with inspiration. As responsible parents, we should be directing our children towards appropriate role models, not allowing them to drift towards slackers and criminals.

Now it's possible, likely even, that Michael Vick may indeed have become a role model for some youth of America due to his early career exploits and style. These young people likely would have had no idea of his off-field problematic behaviors, they just loved the player that they saw every Sunday on the field. For these individuals, the ultimate negative situations that Vick found himself in have valuable lessons that can be learned.

I believe that ultimately it is too important an idea to surrender, that idea of recovery, of restitution, of rehabilitation, of revival. I also believe that punishments should fit the crime, and in relation to this incident, I believe that a dog's life is not as important as a human beings life. I own a dog. I really enjoy my dog. He has been a major part of our home life for the past decade. But he is simply not as important as my wife, or my kids, or my grand kids. Period.

To me, that bottom line difference means that a man should not be sent to jail for life, or be executed, for a crime such as that committed by Michael Vick. I think that all of the punishment that he has been through already fits his particular crime.

So now it comes down to a pair of questions: should Vick be allowed to return to pro football, and if so, should the Philadelphia Eagles be the team that signs him? To the first I say that he should be allowed to return. His crime was not against football directly. He did not bet on the game, or throw the outcome of a game. He is not the first NFL player to spend time in jail and then return to the league.

An electrician, or a plumber, or a lawyer, or a politician would expect to return to work following a drunk driving episode. It happens every day. Vick is a pro football player, he should have the opportunity to return to his profession, if he will be allowed to do so by the league, and if a team will have him.

For any number of reasons, the Philadelphia Eagles decided to give him an opportunity with their organization. For my money from his perspective, there probably is not a better team that he could have that opportunity with than the Birds. He can be mentored, on and off the field, by a true leader in Donovan McNabb. He will be held accountable from here on out by an owner in Jeffrey Lurie and a coach in Andy Reid who will accept no slip ups, and who in fact will expect not only his best behavior, but also will watch for his acts of restitution.

I am a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and I will obviously remain one. I don't see me being 'forced' into anything by the team. I can support them or not, on various levels with my time and money. I choose to support them. I don't believe that Michael Vick will get a ton of opportunities as the team's quarterback, so I believe that the chance that I will have to root for him directly is small. If that time should indeed come, I will root for and cheer the result of any play that helps the Eagles win their games.

And as for Michael Vick, I will hope that he turns his life around. I hope that he truly grows to fully understand the depth of how wrong his previous actions were. I hope that he does everything in his power and then some to make amends to the community of his fellow man by donating time, money, and publicity towards the humane treatment of pets with the SPCA, the Humane Society, and other similar groups. And I hope that from this point forward he commits no further crimes or acts of cruelty.

If he should fail in some way, especially publicly, it will be he who is lessened for that failure, not us for giving him a chance. As a human being who has sinned and fallen and paid a large penalty, he deserves that second chance in my opinion, and I for one am glad that it was my Philadelphia Eagles who are giving it to him.