Revolution 2.0 -- Egypt gains a chance for freedom!

Today something truly important has occurred.  A non-violent revolution pushed a dictator (one of our dictators) from power.  The joy being expressed in Tahrir Square in Cairo reminds me of the night the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.  I remember watching that event unfold on live TV.   The world that I had known from birth -- I was 31 at the time -- had begun to crumble.  With the fall of the Berlin Wall a series of changes in the world began -- the old Soviet Empire itself began to crumble.  I understand that the process of democratization continues, but it had a beginning.

Well today is a day as historic as that day in 1989.  With the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, who seemed intent on dragging this out as long as possible, hoping in one way or another to come out on top, a new day has dawned for the Egyptian people.  Egypt is the largest and most important nation in the Arab world.  It is predominantly Muslim, but it has a significant (10% or so) Christian minority.  What happens in Egypt will have repercussions elsewhere, which is why the Saudi's were pushing back, even promising to make up and shortfall if American pulled it's support.   The cat is out of the bag.

The title Revolution 2.0 comes from a statement made by Wael Ghonim, the Google executive, whose Facebook page gave the platform upon which this revolution was launched.  He gave full credit to Facebook because it gave the people a way of going around state media and organize themselves.  Ghonim has been very forceful in saying that he's not the hero and has no interest in being the leader of the revolution.  But he makes an important case for the importance of social media.  It is going to be more and more difficult for autocratic governments to control the flow of information.  Yes, social media, including blogs, can be used for evil as well as good, but again the cat is out of the bag.  The technology is here to stay and will continue to evolve.   It needn't be feared but needs to be reflected.

Now, one further comment.  It is interesting that yesterday we were surprised by Mubarak's failure to resign, as rumor was suggesting.  It would seem to be that Mubarak was hoping to do one of two things -- either cow his opponents into going home by his intransigent words or provoke a violent response -- so he could order a crackdown (the Army seemingly unwilling to intervene as long as the protests remained non-violent).  When the people stayed in the square but remained non-violent, the regime knew the game was up and Mubarak gave way to the Military, who now have the job of maintaining enough stability for a new system to emerge that would represent the full aspirations of the Egyptian people.  

Another word from Wael Ghonim needs to be heard.  The reason why this revolution has succeeded to this point and why there is hope for something really wonderful to come is that the fear that had pervaded the national psyche had been broken.  The people he said had decided it better to die for a good cause than to live for nothing.  When fear no longer holds, then the forces of oppression can no longer control the situation.

Today Egypt has taken the first step to become a truly free people.  Let us pray for their future and stand with the people as they make a new life for themselves.   

The Revolution Continues

We continue to watch this standoff between an aging and out-of-touch Egyptian government and the growing numbers of people who are fed up with the old ways and want to begin the new today.  They feel insulted when their leaders say that they're not ready for democracy.  They feel insulted when their leaders patronize them by complimenting the young people, but then tell them to go home, that they've been heard.  They're feeling insulted when their leaders say that the protests are insulting Egypt.

Although the crowds ebb and flow, on the primary protest days, the crowds get bigger.  They're young and old, male and female, Muslim and Christian.  Yes, that last piece needs to be lifted up -- both Muslim and Christian voices are in the crowd.  This isn't Iran in 1979.  There is no Khomeini waiting in the wings.  This doesn't appear to be ideologically driven.  In fact, the hero of this revolution is a young Google executive who set up a Facebook page honoring a young man who was beaten to death by the police, a Facebook page that launched the protests.  The cat is out of the bag and putting it back in will not be easy.  

The government thinks it can wait things out, but the protesters are not heeding the warnings to go home.  They're not going to be satisfied with a half-revolution with promises to study constitutional changes.  They want to see the end of emergency powers and the formation of a true interim government that is run by members of the current regime.

As Tom Friedman notes, the key maybe the Army, which to this point is staying neutral.  But if they understand that Mubarak is the past and this crowd is the future, perhaps (especially with some USA urging) will go with the future.  Remember that 50% of Egyptians are under 25.  They've known only repression and want something better.  Time will tell as to who will win out, but today we must say -- "We are all Egyptians."

A Revolution Continues in Egypt

As is true of many people around the world, I watch the unfolding Egyptian Revolution with hope, fear, trepidation, and hope again.  As an American who lives in a country born of revolution, I often take for granted the freedoms I possess.  I want the Egyptian people to have the same freedoms that I have, the same opportunities, and I grieve that these aspirations have been stifled by forces of fear and authoritarianism.  Last night Tom Friedman appeared on Charlie Rose's show, and he spoke of the missed chances that Egypt has had.  They could have been the Taiwan of the Middle East -- becoming a manufacturing sector on the Eastern Mediterranean.  Egypt isn't an oil producer, so it depends on the Suez Canal, the Nile, Tourism, and history.  It has the potential to become an economic power, but as Friedman noted, corruption, mismanagement, etc. have put the Egyptians at a disadvantage.  It's not Islam that holds Egypt and the Arab world back.  It is a fear of embracing the future that is holding them back.

So, we wait to see what comes next on what has been deemed "Departure Day."  The crowds continue to stream into the central square in Cairo.  The "pro-Mubarak" crowd has essentially dissipated, and the more joyous feeling that was seen earlier has returned.  Mubarak seems willing to wait it out, and he may well be able to do so.  Or, the Army may step in and create an interim government.  The protesters are not in a position to take power.  There is no one figure who can gather everyone together.  At this point even the Muslim Brotherhood is ceding the stage to others -- could be a ploy or it could be a realization that despite their organization prowess, they don't have a majority of the people on their side.  Yes, Iran wants to claim an Islamic style revolution similar to theirs, but there is no sign of this.  Indeed, what is interesting is that there is almost no anti-American or anti-Western sentiment being expressed.  No one is burning Uncle Sam in effigy.  Indeed, you don't even seem much anti-Israeli sentiment.  People want to live free, normal, lives.  They want their government to be responsive to their needs.  (Sound familiar?)

It is unfortunate that President Mubarak has gotten it in his mind that he is the sole buttress against chaos.  It is clear that he has been in power too long and that he believes his own myths.  The buttress against chaos isn't Mubarak, it's likely the Army.  The Army has been the one institution in Egyptian life that has continued to have the respect of the people.  My sense (and I have no proof) is that the Generals are looking at the situation and deciding whether to stay with Mubarak or not.  If they think their future is better off without Mubarak, Mubarak is gone. 

So, we wait, wondering what will happen next.  Hoping that this revolution ends better than most -- either in failure or radicalization.

Egypt's Dangerous Turn

One of the fears that everyone has had -- the worse case scenario -- is that Hosni Mubarak would try to hang on to power in Egypt.  Although he has promised not to run in an upcoming election and has seemingly abandoned the idea of passing on rule to his son, Gamal, he doesn't seem ready to actually move the country away from autocratic rule.

Reports are out now that "pro-Mubarak" protests have emerged, and that "supporters" have attacked the protesters in Cairo.  Although I'm sure that Mubarak has his supporters, especially those whose lives are intertwined with his regime, most analysts have noted that much of this "support" comes from paid thugs.  We all know that autocratic and dictatorial governments have ways of staging counter protests or shows of support for the government.  The Soviets were masters of it.  The Nazi's knew how to do it.  So, we should not be swayed by this sudden show of support for Mubarak.

It is time for Mubarak to go, and it's time for the US government to end its support for his regime, whose military is propped up by our largess.  I understand the realities of the situation.  The pragmatist/realist side of me wants to see stability.  But propping up a dying government will not preserve stability, it will only further undermine it, and as in Iran, allow more radical elements to co-opt it. 

Mubarak -- it's time to go.

A Word of Hope for Egypt and the Arab World

For many years the Arab world has been largely controlled by military dictatorships of one sort or another.  They have gained support from the West, including the United States, by portraying themselves as the only feasible alternative to anti-western Islamist regimes, with a finger pointed at Iran.  Of course, Iran is a different fish, starting with the fact that it's not Arab.  

The revolution in Tunisia, which ran off its dictator, has set in motion a chain of events that is leading to pretty radical change of mindset in the Arab world.  Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for thirty years, keeping an iron grip and suppressing any opposition, and we have largely turned a blind eye.  But the people have begun to speak.  They're no longer afraid, and the crowds that gather in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria are not chanting anti-American slogans as they did in Tehran a generation ago.  They simply want their freedom.  And hopefully they will get it.

Now, here's the big question -- will Egypt take an Islamist turn?  Well, for the most part this is not a religiously driven revolution.  This is about jobs and about a government that is responsive to the needs of the people.  It's about freedom of assembly and freedom of speech.  Will there be an Islamic component to what comes out of this revolution?  I would expect that the Muslim Brotherhood will play a role in what comes next.  But, I think we need to recognize that Egypt is predominantly Muslim.  But maybe the Muslim Brotherhood isn't the "Fundamentalist bogeyman" that they're portrayed as being.  Last night I watched an interview with a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, who had just escaped from prison.  He said that while Egypt is predominantly Muslim, the rights of minorities should and will be respected.  Why should we not take him at his word?  Why not give the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to be a partner in building a modern, open Egyptian state.  And if it works in Egypt, it can work elsewhere.

Yes, Israel is nervous, but a future built upon a partnership with a dictator does not bode well for lasting peace. 

This is my hope and prayer   

Egypt -- Will Freedom Ring?

I've been watching the events unfolding in Egypt with a great deal of concern and hope.  Egypt has been a stalwart US ally and "friend of Israel."  This reality has led American American governments to turn a blind eye from the autocratic nature of this regime.  We've stood by allowing Hosni Mubarak to rule without many questions because of the fear of Islamist takeover.  Unfortunately, our willingness to abide secular autocrats has only further alienated the Arab populace and given Islamists the high ground. 

After the people of Tunis rose up and pushed out the dictatorial regime there, the populace in Egypt has risen up.  Mubarak has, so far, refused to give up power, though he has fired his cabinet.  Of course, this fools no one.  The problem isn't with the cabinet, but with the one who appoints the cabinet.  Mubarak also is 82 and wanting to pass on power to his son -- but the people and perhaps even the Army isn't happy with this idea.  And so the nation has revolted.  The Army has been called out, but there is a sense that the military is weighing its options. 

So what will happen?  The US seems sidelined -- supporting democracy but fearful of chaos in Egypt.  Israel has placed its bets on Mubarak and so is hoping for autocratic rule to continue.  Other Arab countries are also looking at what is happening in Egypt with great concern, because like Egypt these are states ruled by autocratic rulers who allow little freedom to the people.  And, like Egypt the vast majority of their own populace is under the age of 30, and restive.  Islamists have, in the past, exploited this restiveness, for they alone have carried the moral authority to oppose these leaders.  What is interesting in Tunis and in Egypt is that by and large this is not an Islamist driven revolt.  But, if there is a crackdown, it is likely that it will be the Islamists who are able to exploit it.

My hope is that Mubarak steps down and democratic steps are taken.  Egypt is a fairly modern country, that has some diversity -- Predominantly Muslim, but with a significant Christian (Coptic) minority.  I don't know where this will go, but I remain hopeful that freedom will ring for this nation.  Let us not support autocracy out of fear of Islamist take over.  Such fears only feed resentments toward the west.  If we stand for freedom, let us also support it in real ways that honor the aspirations of the Arab people for a better life.  What was it that Jefferson wrote in the Declaration of Independence -- the inalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.